Implication of future temperature changes on asphalt binder selection and simulated pavement performance in Sharjah

Climate change is a pressing global issue that has far-reaching effects on the environment, including its impact on infrastructure such as roads and pavements. As temperatures rise, it is essential to consider selecting asphalt binder performance grades to ensure the long-lasting and reliable performance of asphalt pavements. In Sharjah, the penetration grading system guides the selection of asphalt binder grade (grade 60/70). However, this grading system is empirical in nature and doesn’t take into account local temperature fluctuations. The superpave performance grade (PG) system considers explicitly local temperature records while allowing the incorporation of future temperature changes. The main goal of this study project is to assess the impact of future temperature changes on the required asphalt binder PG in Sharjah and the consequent impact on pavement performance simulated by AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design. Future temperature records were predicted via the MRI-CGCM3 model considering two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and two future periods (near and far). The historical temperature records revealed a PG 70–10 at a 98% reliability level for Sharjah compared to a PG 64–16, equivalent to the currently used 60/70 penetration grade. Future temperature changes yielded a higher performance grade of PG 76–10 for the far future, considering RCP 8.5. The performance simulations emphasized the importance of carefully selecting the asphalt binder PG, as this decision has been shown to increase the life span of asphalt pavement.