Scholarlink

<p>The primary objective of this study is to explore the impact of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of ASEAN countries. This investigation employs panel data and utilises the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for estimation and result analysis. The study employs the test for cointegration to establish the presence of a long-term relationship in the model. Consequently, both long-term and short-term ARDL models are estimated. The long-term results reveal a significant and negative impact of inflation on economic growth in ASEAN countries, while unemployment exhibits a negative direction consistent with Okun’s Law, but does not attain statistical significance in the long run. In the short term, unemployment and inflation are found to have different effects on economic growth in ASEAN countries. Based on these findings, it is recommended that authorities should prioritise credible inflation-targeting policies, while the government should create opportunities to enhance the skills and capacity of the population.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

The Growth–Inflation–Unemployment Nexus in ASEAN Countries: Panel ARDL Evidence with Structural Break Considerations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

查看全文
  • Tan Huu Nguyen

摘要

The primary objective of this study is to explore the impact of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of ASEAN countries. This investigation employs panel data and utilises the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for estimation and result analysis. The study employs the test for cointegration to establish the presence of a long-term relationship in the model. Consequently, both long-term and short-term ARDL models are estimated. The long-term results reveal a significant and negative impact of inflation on economic growth in ASEAN countries, while unemployment exhibits a negative direction consistent with Okun’s Law, but does not attain statistical significance in the long run. In the short term, unemployment and inflation are found to have different effects on economic growth in ASEAN countries. Based on these findings, it is recommended that authorities should prioritise credible inflation-targeting policies, while the government should create opportunities to enhance the skills and capacity of the population.