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<p>This study explores the dynamics of unemployment duration in India using Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data from 2020 to 2024, employing survival analysis through Cox Proportional Hazards&#xa0;(Cox&#xa0;PH) and Accelerated Failure Time&#xa0;(AFT) models. The analysis highlights an alarming trend of increasing survival rates, indicating prolonged joblessness across socio-demographic groups. Sectoral disparities remain significant, with rural areas facing higher unemployment risks, while higher educational attainment paradoxically extends unemployment durations due to skill mismatches and higher job expectations. Gender inequalities persist, with women experiencing longer unemployment spells than men. Kaplan–Meier survival curves reveal slower exits from unemployment in 2024 compared to 2020, reflecting structural labour market challenges such as stagnant job growth and insufficient alignment of skill with market demands. Prolonged unemployment exacerbates employment deprivation, leading to skill erosion, economic instability, and vulnerability to precarious employment characterised by low wages and insecurity. The study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions, such as enhanced job training, vocational education, and curriculum reforms to bridge skill gaps. Strengthening social protection systems, including unemployment benefits and infrastructure investments in high-unemployment sectors, is crucial for mitigating joblessness and improving labour market outcomes. While findings provide valuable insights, limitations include reliance on PLFS data that may not fully capture regional or informal sector nuances. Future research should incorporate longitudinal data and qualitative analysis to better understand unemployment’s socioeconomic impacts and the effectiveness of policy measures. Addressing these challenges through evidence-based policies can foster sustainable employment, reduce economic inequalities, and promote social resilience in India.</p>

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Precarious Work and Employment Deprivation: An Econometric Study of Unemployment Duration in India (2020–2024)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月1日

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  • Divya Satish Revankar,
  • Aswini Kumar Mishra,
  • Arfat Sofi

摘要

This study explores the dynamics of unemployment duration in India using Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data from 2020 to 2024, employing survival analysis through Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models. The analysis highlights an alarming trend of increasing survival rates, indicating prolonged joblessness across socio-demographic groups. Sectoral disparities remain significant, with rural areas facing higher unemployment risks, while higher educational attainment paradoxically extends unemployment durations due to skill mismatches and higher job expectations. Gender inequalities persist, with women experiencing longer unemployment spells than men. Kaplan–Meier survival curves reveal slower exits from unemployment in 2024 compared to 2020, reflecting structural labour market challenges such as stagnant job growth and insufficient alignment of skill with market demands. Prolonged unemployment exacerbates employment deprivation, leading to skill erosion, economic instability, and vulnerability to precarious employment characterised by low wages and insecurity. The study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions, such as enhanced job training, vocational education, and curriculum reforms to bridge skill gaps. Strengthening social protection systems, including unemployment benefits and infrastructure investments in high-unemployment sectors, is crucial for mitigating joblessness and improving labour market outcomes. While findings provide valuable insights, limitations include reliance on PLFS data that may not fully capture regional or informal sector nuances. Future research should incorporate longitudinal data and qualitative analysis to better understand unemployment’s socioeconomic impacts and the effectiveness of policy measures. Addressing these challenges through evidence-based policies can foster sustainable employment, reduce economic inequalities, and promote social resilience in India.