Wie groß ist die Gefahr eines Fachkräftemangels in Zukunftsberufen?

The digital and ecological transformation is changing the demand for labor and skills required in the labor market. This paper examines the resulting risk of a shortage of skilled workers in ten future jobs and five German metropolitan regions. First, we examine the employment development using administrative data. This analysis reveals above-average employment growth in future jobs, particularly in digital occupations such as software development or green jobs such as supply and disposal occupations. Second, we use online job vacancies to examine the level of labor demand for employees and the demand for digital and green skills within future jobs. These analyses indicate differential regional coping strategies: While digital occupations display a consistently high demand, there are significant regional differences in green jobs. Third, an examination of the labor supply from the tertiary and vocational education system shows that the labor supply, particularly in STEM subjects and dual training occupations, is lagging behind the growing demand. Finally, we discuss in which jobs and regions a severe shortage of skilled workers is to be expected in the future and which measures appear suitable for overcoming this challenge.