Falsch informiert?! Die (Fehl‑)Einschätzungen der Bevölkerung über die Wirkungen eines Tempolimits auf deutschen Autobahnen

Based on a representative survey, we examine the population’s level of information about the effects of a general speed limit on German highways with regard to the possible reduction of CO₂ emissions in the transport sector on the one hand and the avoidance of victims of fatal traffic accidents on the other. As part of an economic analysis of the effects of a speed limit, its negative consequences must also be considered in addition to its positive effects. In the first part of the paper, we therefore provide an overview of the results of the scientific literature with regard to the most important positive and negative consequences.

The results of the survey show that the population is very poorly informed about the effects of a speed limit. Significantly less than half of participants of the survey feel able to give an answer at all. The participants who give an answer overestimate on average the positive effects expected according to the scientific literature considerably. The assessments of effectiveness of a speed limit, and thus also the misjudgments, are significantly higher among the supporters than among the opponents.

The assessment of effectiveness has a clear relation to the support or rejection of a speed limit. If we assume a causal influence of the assessment of effectiveness on preferences, our results suggest that the majority of the population would reject a speed limit if people assessed the positive effects roughly in line with the results of the scientific literature.