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<p>In early 2019, Golestan Province experienced significant rainfall that led to severe flooding and landslides, particularly in its eastern and central regions. The excessive precipitation saturated the soil, reducing its shear strength and causing significant damage to infrastructure and residential buildings. This study focuses on evaluating the stability of slopes near residential areas affected by both rainfall and seismic activity in eastern Golestan Province. Preliminary investigations were conducted across various slopes in Minudasht and Maraveh Tappeh, ultimately resulting in the selection of five sites for detailed stability assessment: Qaleqāfe, Balamjarak, Dumanli, Qarnaveh-ye Olya, and Punu. The study implemented comparative slope stability analyses using limit equilibrium (LE) approaches (Morgenstern-Price and Spencer) via SLOPE/W 2023 and finite element (FE) modeling with strength reduction in PLAXIS. Field and laboratory tests were carried out to evaluate and determine geotechnical parameters. The results indicated that the Qaleqāfe slope is at a stable state under dry conditions (Fs = 1.37), whereas it becomes unstable (Fs = 0.79) with heavy rainfall. Additionally, the slope approached a critical state (Fs = 1.04) when subjected to anticipated earthquake intensity. Moreover, results indicated that potential slope failure would involve a significant sliding mass volume, with displacements reaching 1.3&#xa0;m at the slope crest and 0.25&#xa0;m at the toe. For the studied natural slopes, during the rainy season, the safety factor reduction increases approximately twofold with greater slope steepness (Qarnaveh compared to Balamjarak). A comparative analysis revealed that LE methods produced Fs values approximately 3–20% higher than those from FE methods.</p>

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Assessment of Slope Stability in Eastern Golestan Province-Iran, Following Rainfall-Induced Landslides

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月3日

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  • Bahram Ta’negonbadi,
  • Yasser Dehnavi,
  • Javadreza Vahedi

摘要

In early 2019, Golestan Province experienced significant rainfall that led to severe flooding and landslides, particularly in its eastern and central regions. The excessive precipitation saturated the soil, reducing its shear strength and causing significant damage to infrastructure and residential buildings. This study focuses on evaluating the stability of slopes near residential areas affected by both rainfall and seismic activity in eastern Golestan Province. Preliminary investigations were conducted across various slopes in Minudasht and Maraveh Tappeh, ultimately resulting in the selection of five sites for detailed stability assessment: Qaleqāfe, Balamjarak, Dumanli, Qarnaveh-ye Olya, and Punu. The study implemented comparative slope stability analyses using limit equilibrium (LE) approaches (Morgenstern-Price and Spencer) via SLOPE/W 2023 and finite element (FE) modeling with strength reduction in PLAXIS. Field and laboratory tests were carried out to evaluate and determine geotechnical parameters. The results indicated that the Qaleqāfe slope is at a stable state under dry conditions (Fs = 1.37), whereas it becomes unstable (Fs = 0.79) with heavy rainfall. Additionally, the slope approached a critical state (Fs = 1.04) when subjected to anticipated earthquake intensity. Moreover, results indicated that potential slope failure would involve a significant sliding mass volume, with displacements reaching 1.3 m at the slope crest and 0.25 m at the toe. For the studied natural slopes, during the rainy season, the safety factor reduction increases approximately twofold with greater slope steepness (Qarnaveh compared to Balamjarak). A comparative analysis revealed that LE methods produced Fs values approximately 3–20% higher than those from FE methods.