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<p>The stability of the over-consolidated red clay slope was initially assessed using both the limit equilibrium method and the Finite Element Method during the construction of East Changhong Avenue in the Jiujiang Region, Jiangxi Province, China. The slope on the south side of the K3 + 560 ~ K3 + 750 section was stable. However, landslides occurred in the following two rainy seasons. Laboratory tests revealed a 14.2&#xa0;kPa stress loss in shear strength under the action of a dry–wet cycle. Therefore, based on the suction strength law of red clay, the over-consolidated unsaturated Unified Hardening (UH) model was improved and embedded into FLAC3D for slope stability analysis. At the same time, due to the uncertainties of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve (SWCC) model, the Bayesian theory coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling identified optimal models: the Van Genuchten (VG) model for wetting (posterior probability: 58.76%) and the Fredlund-Xing (FX) model for drying (62.34%), which can be applied to the seepage analysis of slope. Finally, the displacement of the red clay slope under the dry–wet cycle was calculated under intermittent rainfall (450&#xa0;mm/month). The results indicated that the maximum horizontal displacement at the slope crest reached 11.53&#xa0;cm, far exceeding the critical threshold of 4.8&#xa0;cm, demonstrating the occurrence of a landslide. Compared to the 4.05&#xa0;cm predicted by conventional methods, the proposed approach fully incorporated the contribution of matrix suction to red clay strength and accounted for uncertainties of SWCC, which provided a valuable reference for the prevention and treatment of red clay slopes.</p>

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Failure Analysis of Over-Consolidated Red Clay Slope Considering SWCC Random Statistics in Jiujiang Region, Jiangxi Province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Changhong Wang,
  • Tianhu Li,
  • Yu Yan,
  • Baolin Hu

摘要

The stability of the over-consolidated red clay slope was initially assessed using both the limit equilibrium method and the Finite Element Method during the construction of East Changhong Avenue in the Jiujiang Region, Jiangxi Province, China. The slope on the south side of the K3 + 560 ~ K3 + 750 section was stable. However, landslides occurred in the following two rainy seasons. Laboratory tests revealed a 14.2 kPa stress loss in shear strength under the action of a dry–wet cycle. Therefore, based on the suction strength law of red clay, the over-consolidated unsaturated Unified Hardening (UH) model was improved and embedded into FLAC3D for slope stability analysis. At the same time, due to the uncertainties of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve (SWCC) model, the Bayesian theory coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling identified optimal models: the Van Genuchten (VG) model for wetting (posterior probability: 58.76%) and the Fredlund-Xing (FX) model for drying (62.34%), which can be applied to the seepage analysis of slope. Finally, the displacement of the red clay slope under the dry–wet cycle was calculated under intermittent rainfall (450 mm/month). The results indicated that the maximum horizontal displacement at the slope crest reached 11.53 cm, far exceeding the critical threshold of 4.8 cm, demonstrating the occurrence of a landslide. Compared to the 4.05 cm predicted by conventional methods, the proposed approach fully incorporated the contribution of matrix suction to red clay strength and accounted for uncertainties of SWCC, which provided a valuable reference for the prevention and treatment of red clay slopes.