Investigation of Seismicity Parameters in Kopeh Dagh Seismic Province of Iran–Turkmenistan
摘要
In the present study, seismic data from the Iranian Seismological Center from 1996 to 2025 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of the b-value before the occurrence of the 2017 earthquake with a magnitude of MN equal to 6.0 in the Kopeh Dagh region, using the maximum likelihood method. The examination of b-value over time showed both decreasing and increasing trends. After a period of decrease, the potential for earthquake occurrence was increased. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of b was also examined for this seismically active province. The results indicate that the northern, central, and southern regions of Kopeh Dagh have a lower b-value (0.6–0.8), indicating a higher potential for earthquakes larger than 6.0. If these results are confirmed, it can be expected to achieve a more accurate prediction of the location of these earthquakes in addition to the timing of their occurrence in seismic hazard analysis of this region for better earthquake crisis management planning.