<p>In the present study, seismic data from the Iranian Seismological Center from 1996 to 2025 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of the b-value before the occurrence of the 2017 earthquake with a magnitude of M<sub>N</sub> equal to 6.0 in the Kopeh Dagh region, using the maximum likelihood method. The examination of b-value over time showed both decreasing and increasing trends. After a period of decrease, the potential for earthquake occurrence was increased. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of b was also examined for this seismically active province. The results indicate that the northern, central, and southern regions of Kopeh Dagh have a lower b-value (0.6–0.8), indicating a higher potential for earthquakes larger than 6.0. If these results are confirmed, it can be expected to achieve a more accurate prediction of the location of these earthquakes in addition to the timing of their occurrence in seismic hazard analysis of this region for better earthquake crisis management planning.</p>

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Investigation of Seismicity Parameters in Kopeh Dagh Seismic Province of Iran–Turkmenistan

  • Hadi Baderi,
  • Hamid Saffari

摘要

In the present study, seismic data from the Iranian Seismological Center from 1996 to 2025 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of the b-value before the occurrence of the 2017 earthquake with a magnitude of MN equal to 6.0 in the Kopeh Dagh region, using the maximum likelihood method. The examination of b-value over time showed both decreasing and increasing trends. After a period of decrease, the potential for earthquake occurrence was increased. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of b was also examined for this seismically active province. The results indicate that the northern, central, and southern regions of Kopeh Dagh have a lower b-value (0.6–0.8), indicating a higher potential for earthquakes larger than 6.0. If these results are confirmed, it can be expected to achieve a more accurate prediction of the location of these earthquakes in addition to the timing of their occurrence in seismic hazard analysis of this region for better earthquake crisis management planning.