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<p>Achieving “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060” is pivotal to China’s sustainable development and requires rigorous, comprehensive assessments of carbon budget magnitudes and trajectories. Leveraging advanced datasets and a coupled ecological–energy–environmental–economic modeling framework, this study quantifies China’s dynamic carbon budget and delineates energy transition pathways for 2018–2060. Results show that the SSP1‑2.6 pathway substantially curbs anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and fosters a more balanced regional carbon budget. Under the RES scenario, wind and solar emerge as the dominant energy sources, while carbon tax–funded subsidies yield short‑term GDP gains of 0.01%–0.03%. We further find that coordinating ecosystem carbon sequestration with a combined policy package—“wind and solar power substitution + carbon tax reinvestment”—produces synergistic benefits: strengthening terrestrial carbon sinks, reducing anthropogenic emissions, and advancing integrated solutions for ecological restoration and climate governance across China’s territorial space.</p>

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China’s dynamic emission pathways and ecosystem carbon storage during 2018–2060: a cross-system integrated assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月21日

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  • Youjia Liang,
  • Lijun Liu

摘要

Achieving “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060” is pivotal to China’s sustainable development and requires rigorous, comprehensive assessments of carbon budget magnitudes and trajectories. Leveraging advanced datasets and a coupled ecological–energy–environmental–economic modeling framework, this study quantifies China’s dynamic carbon budget and delineates energy transition pathways for 2018–2060. Results show that the SSP1‑2.6 pathway substantially curbs anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and fosters a more balanced regional carbon budget. Under the RES scenario, wind and solar emerge as the dominant energy sources, while carbon tax–funded subsidies yield short‑term GDP gains of 0.01%–0.03%. We further find that coordinating ecosystem carbon sequestration with a combined policy package—“wind and solar power substitution + carbon tax reinvestment”—produces synergistic benefits: strengthening terrestrial carbon sinks, reducing anthropogenic emissions, and advancing integrated solutions for ecological restoration and climate governance across China’s territorial space.