<p>China’s ambitious plan to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 requires careful assessment of regional disparities in emission trajectories and zero-carbon pathways. On the basis of provincial bottom-up emission inventories and near-real-time datasets, this study shed light on the emission dynamics in 2000–2024 and emission scenarios in 2025–2060 for China’s regions. Results show pronounced spatial and sectoral heterogeneity: by 2024, national net emissions exceeded 10.6 GtCO₂, with the West and East contributing near 7.5 Gt, the Central region around 2.3 Gt, and the Northeast stabilizing around 0.8 Gt. Non-fossil energy plays an essential role in emission mitigation, contributing to Scope 4 avoided emissions that grew from 0.3 Gt in 2000 to 2.9 Gt by 2024, with the West as the fastest-growing contributors. This study further investigates the dynamics of the emissions in 2025–2060, two scenarios are developed: a Carbon Neutrality pathway, peaking around 2030 and declining to ~ 0.8 Gt residual emissions by 2060, and a Business-as-Usual pathway, with slower efficiency gains and residuals above 10 Gt. Findings underscore that achieving China’s dual-carbon goals requires regionally differentiated strategies, rapid expansion of renewables, and stronger mechanisms linking developed and underdeveloped provinces to prevent carbon lock-in and ensure an equitable zero-carbon transition.</p>