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<p>The global energy transition will require both fossil fuels and renewable energy, alongside metals essential for low-carbon technologies. Given the growing&#xa0;role of energy-metal nexus&#xa0;playing in energy system, the availability of these resources is vital to energy security. While fossil fuel and metal supply patterns have been studied&#xa0;seperatedly, few have integrated both into a comprehensive energy security assessment. To address this gap,&#xa0;we examine how fossil and metal supplies affect global energy security using a two-phase assessment framework. Firstly, we analyze the supply concentration of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and copper using the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI). Secondly, we assess energy security by weighing the HHI based on the global historic energy mix. Key findings include: (a) Copper production&#xa0;is geographically more concentrated (61&#xa0;countries) compared to fossil fuels (73–101&#xa0;countries); (b) Oil and coal supply concentrations have increased, while natural gas and copper concentrations have decreased; (c) Energy security risks have risen, with mineral supply concentration increasing by 48% from 2000 to 2022; (d) Global energy security has experienced decrease from 2000 to 2022, while it is projected to recover by the middle of this century. These highlights the need for further research on the interplay between fossil fuels and metal extraction in the low-carbon transition.</p>

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Incorporating energy-metal nexus from supply side to reveal global energy security

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月5日

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  • Kaipeng Ren,
  • Xu Tang,
  • Weize Song,
  • Jakob Willerström,
  • Mikael Höök

摘要

The global energy transition will require both fossil fuels and renewable energy, alongside metals essential for low-carbon technologies. Given the growing role of energy-metal nexus playing in energy system, the availability of these resources is vital to energy security. While fossil fuel and metal supply patterns have been studied seperatedly, few have integrated both into a comprehensive energy security assessment. To address this gap, we examine how fossil and metal supplies affect global energy security using a two-phase assessment framework. Firstly, we analyze the supply concentration of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and copper using the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI). Secondly, we assess energy security by weighing the HHI based on the global historic energy mix. Key findings include: (a) Copper production is geographically more concentrated (61 countries) compared to fossil fuels (73–101 countries); (b) Oil and coal supply concentrations have increased, while natural gas and copper concentrations have decreased; (c) Energy security risks have risen, with mineral supply concentration increasing by 48% from 2000 to 2022; (d) Global energy security has experienced decrease from 2000 to 2022, while it is projected to recover by the middle of this century. These highlights the need for further research on the interplay between fossil fuels and metal extraction in the low-carbon transition.