Carbon peak roadmap for China’s major energy-intensive industries: a bottom-up modeling approach

Previous research has lacked a comprehensive study of the coupling and connections between China’s four major energy-intensive industries: electricity, steel, cement, and coal chemicals, which contribute to over 65% of China’s total carbon emissions and significantly impact the path to achieving China’s carbon peak. To address this gap, we developed a detailed energy-carbon integrated model, which include three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Peak Oriented Scenario (POS), and Neutrality Oriented Scenario (NOS). Then, we analyzed the carbon emission trends in the four industries and assessed the contribution of key technologies to emission reductions. Our findings indicate that under the BAU, POS, and NOS, the carbon emissions will peak in 2030, 2025, and 2022, respectively, with peak values of 8.56, 8.06, and 7.81 billion tons. Raw material structure adjustments account for over 50% of carbon reductions in both the POS and NOS. Cleaning technology substitution and energy-saving technology collectively contribute to 10–20%. Therefore, cleaning fuels and raw materials and developing decarbonization technologies should be the main direction of future efforts, which will facilitate a timely carbon peak and lower peak value, aligning with global efforts to achieve the carbon reduction targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.