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<p>Accurate tensile strength prediction is essential in gray iron production. Traditional chemistry-based models such as Alloy Factor (AF) and Carbon Equivalent (CE) often fail to capture the solidification and graphite nucleation effects that control strength. Thermal Analysis (TA) provides a faster and more direct method that can replace these empirical approaches without complex calibration. This study compares TA and AF methods using production data from cupola and coreless furnaces. TA predictions are based on three parameters: ACEL, TELOW, and GRF2, which reflect composition, undercooling, and graphite growth, collectively explaining 80 percent of strength variation. Model accuracy was evaluated using a prediction out-of-spec criterion: predicted UTS above the actual class or underpredicted by more than 2,500 psi (17&#xa0;MPa). TA reduced out-of-spec rates from 19 to 2 percent in cupola and from 28 to 2 percent in coreless production, demonstrating robust performance across melting systems.</p>

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Thermal Analysis for Gray Iron: A Reliable Tool for Tensile Strength Predictions for Cupola and Coreless Melting

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月19日

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  • Leonard Winardi

摘要

Accurate tensile strength prediction is essential in gray iron production. Traditional chemistry-based models such as Alloy Factor (AF) and Carbon Equivalent (CE) often fail to capture the solidification and graphite nucleation effects that control strength. Thermal Analysis (TA) provides a faster and more direct method that can replace these empirical approaches without complex calibration. This study compares TA and AF methods using production data from cupola and coreless furnaces. TA predictions are based on three parameters: ACEL, TELOW, and GRF2, which reflect composition, undercooling, and graphite growth, collectively explaining 80 percent of strength variation. Model accuracy was evaluated using a prediction out-of-spec criterion: predicted UTS above the actual class or underpredicted by more than 2,500 psi (17 MPa). TA reduced out-of-spec rates from 19 to 2 percent in cupola and from 28 to 2 percent in coreless production, demonstrating robust performance across melting systems.