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<p>Trade misreporting poses significant challenges for policymakers in developing economies, particularly given capital scarcity constraints. This study examines bilateral trade misreporting between Bangladesh and three OECD partners (the USA, Germany, and the UK) using mirror statistics methodology to identify systematic data falsification patterns and their macroeconomic determinants. We employ ARDL cointegration and VAR Granger causality models to analyze the relationship between trade misreporting rates and key macroeconomic variables, including spot and forward exchange rates, tariff barriers, and real interest rate differentials. Our dataset spans bilateral trade statistics between Bangladesh and OECD countries, enabling robust cross-verification of reported values. Results reveal systematic underreporting of both exports and imports with the USA and Germany, while the UK exhibits mixed patterns with export underreporting and import overreporting post-1990s. Exchange rates demonstrate adverse long-run effects on export underreporting rates across all three major partners. Real interest rate differentials positively impact export underreporting, while forward premiums and export taxes significantly influence misreporting behaviour in the USA and Germany. Critically, we identify bidirectional causality between export and import underinvoicing for USA and Germany, suggesting coordinated misreporting strategies. The study establishes connections between trade channel capital flight and FDI overreporting, indicating sophisticated mechanisms for hidden capital repatriation. These findings highlight the need for enhanced monitoring systems and cross-border data verification protocols to mitigate capital flight through trade misreporting channels in developing economies.</p>

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Falsified Trade Statistics and Substantial Capital Fled: Evidence from Bangladesh with Top OECD Partners

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月24日

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  • Samir Kumer Das,
  • Amit Kumar Biswas

摘要

Trade misreporting poses significant challenges for policymakers in developing economies, particularly given capital scarcity constraints. This study examines bilateral trade misreporting between Bangladesh and three OECD partners (the USA, Germany, and the UK) using mirror statistics methodology to identify systematic data falsification patterns and their macroeconomic determinants. We employ ARDL cointegration and VAR Granger causality models to analyze the relationship between trade misreporting rates and key macroeconomic variables, including spot and forward exchange rates, tariff barriers, and real interest rate differentials. Our dataset spans bilateral trade statistics between Bangladesh and OECD countries, enabling robust cross-verification of reported values. Results reveal systematic underreporting of both exports and imports with the USA and Germany, while the UK exhibits mixed patterns with export underreporting and import overreporting post-1990s. Exchange rates demonstrate adverse long-run effects on export underreporting rates across all three major partners. Real interest rate differentials positively impact export underreporting, while forward premiums and export taxes significantly influence misreporting behaviour in the USA and Germany. Critically, we identify bidirectional causality between export and import underinvoicing for USA and Germany, suggesting coordinated misreporting strategies. The study establishes connections between trade channel capital flight and FDI overreporting, indicating sophisticated mechanisms for hidden capital repatriation. These findings highlight the need for enhanced monitoring systems and cross-border data verification protocols to mitigate capital flight through trade misreporting channels in developing economies.