Can Institutional Interventions be Profitable for Millet Farming in India’s Rainfed Regions? Insights from MESR Models

This article investigates the causal impact of institutional interventions on millet farming profits in a rainfed region of rural India. Using survey data collected during the Kharif 2020 period from 1100 millet farmers, the analysis applied a multinomial endogenous switching regression model. The study explored the influence of different agricultural crop systems (millet vs. non-millet) on agricultural performance, controlling for socio-economic, market, plot-level, and village-level characteristics. The findings reveal that the decision to adopt millet crops is significantly influenced by factors such as soil type, access to irrigation, social category, plot ownership, livestock, household income, distance from dwelling, and access to roads in the study villages. The model results underscore the positive impact of interventions in promoting millet-based agricultural practices. Specifically, the study found that the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) for millet crop (MC) farm households is ₹1563 less per acre compared to non-millet crop (NMC) farmers. However, the adoption of millet crops with institutional intervention (MC-DDS) shows higher profits, with an ATT value of ₹7323 compared to MC farming alone. Additionally, the ATT value of MC-DDS is ₹6880 compared to NMC-adopted farmers. The study results highlight the potential role of institutional support for millet-based farming in rainfed regions of the country. Specifically, interventions such as the provision of farm inputs, extension services, and market support prices have a significant impact. These insights underscore how targeted interventions can influence farm decisions and suggest strategies to enhance millet-based agricultural practices and improve farm profitability in rural India’s rainfed areas.