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<p>Mountainous urban regions face growing water challenges due to land use transitions and changing climate regimes. Understanding the shifts in hydrological processes and water-related ecosystem services (WES) is essential for informed watershed planning. This study assesses the long-term dynamics of WES represented through quickflow (QF) and baseflow (B) as key hydrological indicators, in the South Shimla watershed (1993–2023), using the InVEST Seasonal Water Yield (SWY) model. Results show a 32.96% rise in QF and a 41.47% increase in B. Scenario-based attribution analysis identified climate variability as the dominant driver of both QF (63.4%) and B (91.2%), with LULC change contributing 31.0% and 8.3%, respectively. While a 7.37&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> decline in evergreen forest cover reduced evapotranspiration, the continued dominance of forested land maintained infiltration and sustained B across much of the watershed. These trends indicate a transition toward higher total streamflow but lower hydrological regulation capacity. However, enhanced streamflow has not translated into improved water security, constrained by poor storage infrastructure, misaligned seasonal demand, and fragmented supply systems. Cross-model consistency assessment against the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) yielded good agreement (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.71 for QF and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.70 for B), supporting SWY’s applicability in data-limited mountain regions. The findings align with regional climate adaptation goals and demonstrate how ecosystem-based assessments can guide resilient water governance in Himalayan urban contexts, with direct applicability to sub-watershed planning, green infrastructure investment, and demand-aligned storage strategies.</p>

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Assessing spatiotemporal changes in water-related ecosystem services using quickflow and baseflow indicators in a data-scarce Himalayan watershed

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Atul Chauhan,
  • Souvanic Roy,
  • Abhinandita Kundu

摘要

Mountainous urban regions face growing water challenges due to land use transitions and changing climate regimes. Understanding the shifts in hydrological processes and water-related ecosystem services (WES) is essential for informed watershed planning. This study assesses the long-term dynamics of WES represented through quickflow (QF) and baseflow (B) as key hydrological indicators, in the South Shimla watershed (1993–2023), using the InVEST Seasonal Water Yield (SWY) model. Results show a 32.96% rise in QF and a 41.47% increase in B. Scenario-based attribution analysis identified climate variability as the dominant driver of both QF (63.4%) and B (91.2%), with LULC change contributing 31.0% and 8.3%, respectively. While a 7.37 km2 decline in evergreen forest cover reduced evapotranspiration, the continued dominance of forested land maintained infiltration and sustained B across much of the watershed. These trends indicate a transition toward higher total streamflow but lower hydrological regulation capacity. However, enhanced streamflow has not translated into improved water security, constrained by poor storage infrastructure, misaligned seasonal demand, and fragmented supply systems. Cross-model consistency assessment against the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) yielded good agreement (R2 = 0.71 for QF and R2 = 0.70 for B), supporting SWY’s applicability in data-limited mountain regions. The findings align with regional climate adaptation goals and demonstrate how ecosystem-based assessments can guide resilient water governance in Himalayan urban contexts, with direct applicability to sub-watershed planning, green infrastructure investment, and demand-aligned storage strategies.