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<p>Water resources are essential for both ecosystems and society. However, climate change, population growth, consumption patterns, land use, and urbanisation are affecting the quality and availability of their resources. In Andorra, a Pyrenean country with a tourism-driven economy, the combined pressures of climate change and intensive water use could threaten future sustainability. This study assesses Andorra’s water resources and their future sustainability using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The WEAP-Andorra model provides an initial estimate of national water demand, considering key sectors: tourism, residential use, agriculture, snowmaking, and hydropower. It explores future water availability under different climate scenarios, including extreme drought, alongside socioeconomic factors such as demographic trends, tourism, irrigation, and snowmaking. An Adaptation scenario evaluates the impact of strategic mitigation measures. Results indicate a significant decline in annual streamflow by 2050. Under global change scenarios, yearly streamflow is projected to decrease by 5.3–8.5%, while extreme drought could lead to a 65.4% reduction. While overall water demand is not expected to be compromised, extreme drought could impact key sectors. Ski resorts may face challenges in ensuring snow production, and hydropower generation could be affected. The severity of unmet demand will depend on the frequency and duration of future droughts.</p>

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Effects of global change on streamflow, water demand and supply: a case study from the Pyrenees

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Marta Domènech,
  • Oriol Travesset-Baro,
  • Cristina Pesado-Pons,
  • Juan Ignacio López-Moreno,
  • Marc Pons

摘要

Water resources are essential for both ecosystems and society. However, climate change, population growth, consumption patterns, land use, and urbanisation are affecting the quality and availability of their resources. In Andorra, a Pyrenean country with a tourism-driven economy, the combined pressures of climate change and intensive water use could threaten future sustainability. This study assesses Andorra’s water resources and their future sustainability using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The WEAP-Andorra model provides an initial estimate of national water demand, considering key sectors: tourism, residential use, agriculture, snowmaking, and hydropower. It explores future water availability under different climate scenarios, including extreme drought, alongside socioeconomic factors such as demographic trends, tourism, irrigation, and snowmaking. An Adaptation scenario evaluates the impact of strategic mitigation measures. Results indicate a significant decline in annual streamflow by 2050. Under global change scenarios, yearly streamflow is projected to decrease by 5.3–8.5%, while extreme drought could lead to a 65.4% reduction. While overall water demand is not expected to be compromised, extreme drought could impact key sectors. Ski resorts may face challenges in ensuring snow production, and hydropower generation could be affected. The severity of unmet demand will depend on the frequency and duration of future droughts.