A hybrid socio-hydrological model for sustainable water resource management and enhanced adaptive capacity
摘要
The interaction between human behavior and natural hydrological processes is ever more at the center of effective water resource management. The escalating threats of water scarcity and climate change necessitate enhancing the resilience and adaptability of water users. This is crucial for mitigating the impacts of hydrological cycle disruptions, such as droughts. This paper introduces a hybrid socio-hydrological model integrating hydrological and social aspects to advance water management solutions. The model was applied in six villages of the Dorood-Borujerd watershed of the Lorestan province in western Iran. It classifies farmers based on both individual characteristics and social aspects. Incorporation of these social aspects into conventional hydrological models is likely to minimize uncertainties in water management solutions. The incorporation of such social variables in a water balance model exhibited a considerable addition of more than 18% of surface water storage, which might be due to increased accuracy in the model results. It additionally indicated that considering adaptive capacity and social network dynamics, as well as individual characteristics, led to a decrease in agricultural surface water withdrawals by 13%. The conclusions drawn justify the argument that socio-hydrological modeling is a cornerstone of a successful participatory water resource management approach. The results presented illustrate how hybrid modeling strategies, which focus on social-environmental system interaction, can enhance water management performance, particularly in regions with high water scarcity and climate variability.