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<p>This study investigates the impact of climate change on the Koysha Hydroelectric Plant in Ethiopia's Omo Gibe River Basin, focusing on future reservoir performance, energy generation, and hydropower production. Using a combined HBV-Light hydrological and MODSIM reservoir simulation modeling approach, we analyzed downscaled climate data from the CORDEX-Africa database under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for three time periods: historical (1985–2005), 2030s (2021–2050), and 2060s (2051–2080). Key findings reveal a projected decrease in optimal stored water of 14.4–17.19% across scenarios and time horizons, leading to a decline in average annual energy generation of 1.6–2.1% and a more significant reduction in hydropower production of 10.5–14.8%. While projected precipitation trends indicate an initial increase (7.8–8.1%) in the 2030s followed by a decrease (3.2–7.1%) in the 2060s, and temperature is expected to increase (up to 2.13&#xa0;°C for minimum and 1.71&#xa0;°C for maximum in the 2060s under RCP8.5), average monthly flow shows a similar pattern, increasing initially (3.4–5.1%) before declining (6.8–9.6%). Despite these flow changes, reservoir reliability and resilience remain above 80%, vulnerability and resilience metrics fall below 50%. However, developed guide curves predict a potential 2-m rise in water level compared to baseline conditions. The results of these findings point to a significant risk of reduced hydropower and energy capacity due to climate change. Therefore, in order to mitigate these negative consequences and support the Koysha Hydroelectric Plant's long-term operating stability, adaptive reservoir management techniques are essential.</p>

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Climate change impacts and reservoir management at the Koyisha hydropower Dam, Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月11日

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  • Alem W. Hailu,
  • Muluken A. Robi,
  • Feseha S. Asrat

摘要

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the Koysha Hydroelectric Plant in Ethiopia's Omo Gibe River Basin, focusing on future reservoir performance, energy generation, and hydropower production. Using a combined HBV-Light hydrological and MODSIM reservoir simulation modeling approach, we analyzed downscaled climate data from the CORDEX-Africa database under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for three time periods: historical (1985–2005), 2030s (2021–2050), and 2060s (2051–2080). Key findings reveal a projected decrease in optimal stored water of 14.4–17.19% across scenarios and time horizons, leading to a decline in average annual energy generation of 1.6–2.1% and a more significant reduction in hydropower production of 10.5–14.8%. While projected precipitation trends indicate an initial increase (7.8–8.1%) in the 2030s followed by a decrease (3.2–7.1%) in the 2060s, and temperature is expected to increase (up to 2.13 °C for minimum and 1.71 °C for maximum in the 2060s under RCP8.5), average monthly flow shows a similar pattern, increasing initially (3.4–5.1%) before declining (6.8–9.6%). Despite these flow changes, reservoir reliability and resilience remain above 80%, vulnerability and resilience metrics fall below 50%. However, developed guide curves predict a potential 2-m rise in water level compared to baseline conditions. The results of these findings point to a significant risk of reduced hydropower and energy capacity due to climate change. Therefore, in order to mitigate these negative consequences and support the Koysha Hydroelectric Plant's long-term operating stability, adaptive reservoir management techniques are essential.