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<p>The study assesses the hydrological responses of a major sub-basin in the Upper Ganga Basin, Uttar Pradesh, India, focusing on the effects of land use changes and climate change (CC) impacts. SWAT and General Circulation Models were used to assess the water yields under current (2020) and future scenarios (2030 &amp; 2050), particularly considering the impacts of organic farming (OF) and agroforestry (AgF) practices. Despite theoretical expectations, the results indicate only minor changes in water yield between different policy scenarios (Business-as-Usual, Optimistic, and Pessimistic), particularly over shorter timeframes. This limited impact is primarily due to the small scale of land transitioning to OF and AgF, the spatial concentration of these practices, and the dominant influence of climate variables on hydrological outcomes. The presented work then extends to estimating the district-wise hydrological response and its valuation for Meerut, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mirzapur following the considered policies. The economic valuation of water yield across the target districts underscores the need for district-specific interventions to optimize water resource management. The findings suggest that scaling up sustainable practices, integrating advanced climate projections, and continuous monitoring are essential for developing resilient water resource management strategies. The study provides a foundation for future research to explore more extensive and long-term impacts of land use and CC on hydrological systems, with a focus on integrating socio-economic factors to achieve future water sustainability.</p>

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Evaluating landuse and climate change effects on current and future hydrologic response and its economic valuation in a North-Indian basin using SWAT

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月5日

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  • Meraj Alam Ansari,
  • Natesan Ravisankar,
  • Himanshu Joshi,
  • Meenu Rani,
  • Mohammad Shamim,
  • Adlul Islam,
  • Ashisa K. Prusty,
  • Raghavendra K. J.,
  • Raghuveer Singh,
  • Sunil Kumar,
  • Azad S. Panwar

摘要

The study assesses the hydrological responses of a major sub-basin in the Upper Ganga Basin, Uttar Pradesh, India, focusing on the effects of land use changes and climate change (CC) impacts. SWAT and General Circulation Models were used to assess the water yields under current (2020) and future scenarios (2030 & 2050), particularly considering the impacts of organic farming (OF) and agroforestry (AgF) practices. Despite theoretical expectations, the results indicate only minor changes in water yield between different policy scenarios (Business-as-Usual, Optimistic, and Pessimistic), particularly over shorter timeframes. This limited impact is primarily due to the small scale of land transitioning to OF and AgF, the spatial concentration of these practices, and the dominant influence of climate variables on hydrological outcomes. The presented work then extends to estimating the district-wise hydrological response and its valuation for Meerut, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mirzapur following the considered policies. The economic valuation of water yield across the target districts underscores the need for district-specific interventions to optimize water resource management. The findings suggest that scaling up sustainable practices, integrating advanced climate projections, and continuous monitoring are essential for developing resilient water resource management strategies. The study provides a foundation for future research to explore more extensive and long-term impacts of land use and CC on hydrological systems, with a focus on integrating socio-economic factors to achieve future water sustainability.