Impact of climate change on himalayan water resources: a predictive model for glacier surface melt assessment

In the inaccessible glaciated areas, measuring the melt of Himalayan glacier is a rigorous task. In this context, an empirical model (enhanced T-index model) incorporating near-surface air temperature, altitude, and debris thickness (the non-climatic parameters) is proposed to simulate the glacier surface melting pattern. Investigation is carried out for the partially debris-covered Dokriani Glacier, Bhagirathi river basin, central Himalaya, India. Daily average temperature data were recorded during the ablation seasons (from 2012 to 2014) using a network of two Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) installed in the Glacier Valley. A near-surface temperature lapse rate was employed to interpolate air temperature records between the snout and upper ablation zone of the glacier (i.e., 4000–4400 m asl) at an interval of 100 m. The developed model was tested for debris-covered as well as clean ice regions of the glacier. The results reveal that the developed model will play an important role in glacier surface melt prediction through the easily assessable data on temperature, altitude, and debris thickness in the lack of observations over the harsh glaciated regions. The study offers a valuable tool for researchers to explore and analyse the multifaceted factors influencing glacier dynamics in a region characterized by complex environmental conditions. Furthermore, the present investigation estimates future water supply from the debris-covered glaciers and will deliver techniques to assess the water resources from the Himalaya and intends to imperative function in water resource assessment and for hydroelectric projects situated on glacier-fed rivers.