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<p>Carrying out a panel data analysis from 1995 to 2023, this work provides novel evidence on the relationship between public social spending and aggregate welfare in European Union (EU) countries. The aim is to offer an updated interpretation of a long-standing debate. The empirical analysis confirms a positive relationship between public social spending and aggregate welfare in the EU, proxied using the Human Development Index (HDI). The results, however, reveal a non-linearity, since the positive effect of public social spending is more pronounced in Eastern and Mediterranean countries, where it serves as a powerful tool to address deep-seated socio-economic fragilities. Furthermore, they highlight positive spatial spillovers, suggesting that one country’s spending can benefit its neighbours due to the significant interconnectedness among EU countries.</p>

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Public social spending and aggregate welfare in the European Union: panel data evidence for the period 1995–2023

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

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  • Giuseppe Terzo,
  • Valentina Meliciani

摘要

Carrying out a panel data analysis from 1995 to 2023, this work provides novel evidence on the relationship between public social spending and aggregate welfare in European Union (EU) countries. The aim is to offer an updated interpretation of a long-standing debate. The empirical analysis confirms a positive relationship between public social spending and aggregate welfare in the EU, proxied using the Human Development Index (HDI). The results, however, reveal a non-linearity, since the positive effect of public social spending is more pronounced in Eastern and Mediterranean countries, where it serves as a powerful tool to address deep-seated socio-economic fragilities. Furthermore, they highlight positive spatial spillovers, suggesting that one country’s spending can benefit its neighbours due to the significant interconnectedness among EU countries.