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<p>This study explores how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects the restructuring strategies of firms within global value chains (GVCs), with a focus on Chinese listed companies. Using a panel dataset from 2010 to 2020, we apply a fixed - effects regression model to analyze firms’ responses to TPU, including adjustments to their GVC positioning, foreign market reliance, and operational strategies such as inventory management and capital investment intensity. We find that TPU significantly impacts firms’ GVC restructuring decisions, with effects varying across different firm types and industries. The research underscores the need for firms to adopt adaptive GVC strategies in the face of rising global trade policy uncertainty and provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance GVC resilience and promote sustainable international trade. JEL Classification Codes F13 (Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations) F14 (Empirical Studies of Trade) F23 (Multinational Firms; International Business) D22 (Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis)</p>

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Trade policy uncertainty and global value chain restructuring: firm-level evidence and analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月11日

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  • Shiwen Gu,
  • Lu Yingchun,
  • Wang Jingjing,
  • Liu Yajing,
  • Cheng Ming,
  • Tong Liu

摘要

This study explores how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects the restructuring strategies of firms within global value chains (GVCs), with a focus on Chinese listed companies. Using a panel dataset from 2010 to 2020, we apply a fixed - effects regression model to analyze firms’ responses to TPU, including adjustments to their GVC positioning, foreign market reliance, and operational strategies such as inventory management and capital investment intensity. We find that TPU significantly impacts firms’ GVC restructuring decisions, with effects varying across different firm types and industries. The research underscores the need for firms to adopt adaptive GVC strategies in the face of rising global trade policy uncertainty and provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance GVC resilience and promote sustainable international trade. JEL Classification Codes F13 (Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations) F14 (Empirical Studies of Trade) F23 (Multinational Firms; International Business) D22 (Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis)