Criminal Trajectories of SNAP (Stop Now And Plan) and Non-SNAP Children and Predictors of Trajectory Group Membership Among SNAP Children Using the Early Assessment Risk Lists (EARLs)

The use of risk assessments for adults and youth has become widespread in criminal justice systems across North America. However, the lack of a risk assessment instrument for children has been a shortcoming in the developmental criminology literature. The Early Assessment Risk Lists (EARLs) were developed by researchers at the Child Development Institute and have become important tools for assessing the level of risk among children between the age of 6 and 11 years referred to the Stop Now And Plan (SNAP) program for children who engage in conduct problem behavior. In this longitudinal study, we examined the criminal trajectories of two groups of children, those admitted into the SNAP program between 2001 and 2009 and those referred but not admitted to the SNAP program in this same period. We also examined the use of the EARLs to predict trajectory group membership in the SNAP sample. Latent class growth analysis zero-inflated Poisson models were estimated for criminal convictions to cluster individuals into latent classes. Results indicated that a two-class model provided the best fit to the data for both groups. In terms of predictors, higher EARL total risk scores and responsivity risk scores were associated with higher odds of being in the high-level offender class than in the rare offender class. The child risk score and male youth had marginally (p < 0.08) higher odds of being in the high-level offender class. The findings suggest a need to address early risk factors for children on a developmental pathway towards involvement in criminal activity, particularly for male children.