Maize white spot (MWS) is an important disease of maize in Brazil. This study examined the relationship between MWS severity and yield using Fisher's Z (Z) and the correlation coefficient (r). Meta-analytic and random-coefficients models were fitted to yield–disease data to estimate the regression intercept (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\widehat{\beta }}_{0}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mover accent="true"> <mi>β</mi> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) and slope (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\widehat{\beta }}_{1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mover accent="true"> <mi>β</mi> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>). The effects of moderator variables (yield class, severity class, and region) were also assessed in the random-coefficients model. Economic damage thresholds (EDTs) were then determined through simulation. A significant association was observed between white spot severity and maize yield (Z = 0.51; r = − 0.47), with both models indicating a negative relationship. In the meta-analytic model, <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\widehat{\beta }}_{0}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mover accent="true"> <mi>β</mi> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${\widehat{\beta }}_{1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mover accent="true"> <mi>β</mi> <mo stretchy="false">^</mo> </mover> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> were estimated at 7,616.61 kg/ha and − 60.22, respectively; in the random-coefficients model, they were 7,555.61 kg/ha and − 57.53. No moderator significantly affected the slope (P > 0.06), but yield class had a significant effect on the intercept (P < 0.01). The MWS damage coefficient was − 0.80% (95% CI: − 1.06 to − 0.55), and the mean EDT was 2.1% disease severity. These findings confirm MWS as a limiting factor for maize yield and provide a quantitative basis for optimizing disease management strategies.

Modeling the severity–yield relationship and economic damage threshold of white spot epidemics in maize

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2025年9月22日

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Ana Carolyne Costa de Carvalho,
Karla Braga,
Adriano A. P. Custódio,
Marcelo G. Canteri,
Lucas H. Fantin,
Carlos M. Utiamada,
Hércules D. Campos,
Dagma D. Silva-Araújo,
Rodrigo V. Costa,
Aildson P. Duarte,
Alexandre A. Costa,
Aline G. Carvalho,
Ana C. Mochko,
André L. Silva,
Dionathan W. Lujan,
Fernanda C. L. Medeiros,
Fernanda C. Juliatti,
Fernando C. Juliatti,
Gisèle M. Fantin,
João M. T. Roy,
José F. J. Grigolli,
José Nunes-Júnior,
Marina Senger,
Nédio R. Tormen,
Emerson M. Del Ponte

摘要

Maize white spot (MWS) is an important disease of maize in Brazil. This study examined the relationship between MWS severity and yield using Fisher's Z (Z) and the correlation coefficient (r). Meta-analytic and random-coefficients models were fitted to yield–disease data to estimate the regression intercept ( ${\widehat{\beta }}_{0}$ ${\hat{β}}_{0}$ ) and slope ( ${\widehat{\beta }}_{1}$ ${\hat{β}}_{1}$ ). The effects of moderator variables (yield class, severity class, and region) were also assessed in the random-coefficients model. Economic damage thresholds (EDTs) were then determined through simulation. A significant association was observed between white spot severity and maize yield (Z = 0.51; r = − 0.47), with both models indicating a negative relationship. In the meta-analytic model, ${\widehat{\beta }}_{0}$ ${\hat{β}}_{0}$ and ${\widehat{\beta }}_{1}$ ${\hat{β}}_{1}$ were estimated at 7,616.61 kg/ha and − 60.22, respectively; in the random-coefficients model, they were 7,555.61 kg/ha and − 57.53. No moderator significantly affected the slope (P > 0.06), but yield class had a significant effect on the intercept (P < 0.01). The MWS damage coefficient was − 0.80% (95% CI: − 1.06 to − 0.55), and the mean EDT was 2.1% disease severity. These findings confirm MWS as a limiting factor for maize yield and provide a quantitative basis for optimizing disease management strategies.