Scholarlink

<p>The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the oil and gas sector. Although the initial effects of ongoing wars have been estimated, a limited number of studies have investigated the impact of war on oil and gas prices and the performance of domestic stock markets in countries geographically distant from conflict countries. This study analyses how price dynamism during the Russia-Ukraine war affects the stock performance of oil and gas firms. Data from 2021 to 2024 of Indonesian oil and gas firms, event window approach, quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC), and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approaches were used to achieve the study objectives. The results indicate a sharp increase and highly volatile oil and gas prices during the war. The QQR findings show a heterogeneous impact (negative and positive) on the stock performance of pooled oil and gas firms. RWWC estimates show downward, upward, and normal stock market trends when oil and gas prices are within the high, low, and normal ranges, respectively. The TVP-VAR findings reveal that while price dynamism has a weak spillover effect on domestic financial markets, the stock performance of oil and gas firms does not significantly influence Indonesia’s financial markets. Our findings offer critical guidance for policymakers and equity investors in managing risks and formulating strategies within indirectly vulnerable, commodity-dependent economies during periods of global and geopolitical uncertainty.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Oil and gas price shocks, stock performance, and financial spillovers during the Russia–Ukraine war

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

查看全文
  • Asep Darmansyah,
  • Raden Aswin Rahadi,
  • Dhegatala Fernady,
  • Zaki Zaini,
  • Hamidah NA,
  • Qaisar Ali

摘要

The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the oil and gas sector. Although the initial effects of ongoing wars have been estimated, a limited number of studies have investigated the impact of war on oil and gas prices and the performance of domestic stock markets in countries geographically distant from conflict countries. This study analyses how price dynamism during the Russia-Ukraine war affects the stock performance of oil and gas firms. Data from 2021 to 2024 of Indonesian oil and gas firms, event window approach, quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC), and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approaches were used to achieve the study objectives. The results indicate a sharp increase and highly volatile oil and gas prices during the war. The QQR findings show a heterogeneous impact (negative and positive) on the stock performance of pooled oil and gas firms. RWWC estimates show downward, upward, and normal stock market trends when oil and gas prices are within the high, low, and normal ranges, respectively. The TVP-VAR findings reveal that while price dynamism has a weak spillover effect on domestic financial markets, the stock performance of oil and gas firms does not significantly influence Indonesia’s financial markets. Our findings offer critical guidance for policymakers and equity investors in managing risks and formulating strategies within indirectly vulnerable, commodity-dependent economies during periods of global and geopolitical uncertainty.