Does population ageing affect tourism flows in OECD countries? Evidence from a panel cointegration analysis
摘要
While the proportion of elderly individuals in total population in the OECD countries has increased, the total number of international tourism departures relative to arrivals in the OECD member countries has declined. There is a paucity of literature on the relationship between a major demographic shift such as population ageing and international tourism flows. This is the first attempt to examine the impact of population ageing on inbound and outbound international tourism in the OECD economies. A thorough empirical investigation for a panel of 15 OECD countries based on panel cointegration analysis leads to two key findings: (1) age demographics is a significant determinant of international tourism flows, and (2) although in aggregate population ageing is associated with an increase in inbound relative to outbound international tourism, the heterogeneous effects indicate that the results vary across the countries in the sample.