<p>A non-autonomous compartmental model for the transmission of Lassa fever (LF) with rodent periodic logistic growth is formulated and studied. The stability of the autonomous version of the model is established with respect to the basic reproduction number of the model, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({R_0}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters of <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({R_0}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is carried out using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method to identify the most sensitive parameters of importance. The local stability of the non-autonomous model for the disease-free periodic equilibrium (DFPE) is examined in relation to the reproduction number, <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0t}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. When <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0t} &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the DFPE is locally asymptotically stable, whereas it becomes unstable if <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0t}&gt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. An optimal control problem involving five strategies was analyzed using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The strategies include using personal protective equipment, avoiding rodent hunting, proper food handling, treatment and isolation, cleaning and disinfecting the environment, and rodent control. Simulation results indicate that implementing all five measures significantly reduces the transmission of Lassa fever. Furthermore, findings suggest that when resources are limited, three or four strategies can still be effective, as long as proper food handling is included.</p>

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Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of Lassa Fever Transmission

  • Chinwendu E. Madubueze,
  • Zviiteyi Chazuka,
  • Chisara P. Ogbogbo,
  • F. Fatmawati

摘要

A non-autonomous compartmental model for the transmission of Lassa fever (LF) with rodent periodic logistic growth is formulated and studied. The stability of the autonomous version of the model is established with respect to the basic reproduction number of the model, \({R_0}\) . The sensitivity analysis of the parameters of \({R_0}\) is carried out using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method to identify the most sensitive parameters of importance. The local stability of the non-autonomous model for the disease-free periodic equilibrium (DFPE) is examined in relation to the reproduction number, \(R_{0t}\) . When \(R_{0t} < 1\) , the DFPE is locally asymptotically stable, whereas it becomes unstable if \(R_{0t}> 1\) . An optimal control problem involving five strategies was analyzed using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The strategies include using personal protective equipment, avoiding rodent hunting, proper food handling, treatment and isolation, cleaning and disinfecting the environment, and rodent control. Simulation results indicate that implementing all five measures significantly reduces the transmission of Lassa fever. Furthermore, findings suggest that when resources are limited, three or four strategies can still be effective, as long as proper food handling is included.