<p>The formulation of policies for infectious disease prevention and control directly influences the subsequent development of the epidemic. However, recent research on infectious disease forecasting and control has been based primarily on deterministic mathematical models, and fixed model parameters increase the risk of epidemic prediction and control. To address this issue, we propose a convex structured parameter estimation method, an extension of the traditional interval parameter estimation method, in which the parameters are transformed into a convex fuzzy number to introduce uncertainty into the infectious disease model. Based on this method, this paper discusses in detail its application in epidemic control and policy formulation. By considering the risks of model parameter estimation and the costs of epidemic control, decision-makers can develop more aggressive and conservative practical strategies for epidemic prevention.</p>