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<p>This paper examines the structural transformation of the US economy over the past two decades, highlighting how deindustrialization, import dependence, and shifting sectoral dynamics have undermined sustainable growth. Using a Sraffian multiplier framework and OECD input–output data, the analysis identifies a persistent trade deficit and increasing import multipliers in high-technology and machinery industries, signaling a reversal in technological specialization. Meanwhile, the manufacturing share of GDP has contracted, while the energy sector—particularly refined petroleum—has expanded, reflecting a late resource-curse or Dutch-disease effect. These trends coincide with declining labor shares, weakened employment multipliers, and changing consumption patterns, all of which exacerbate functional income inequality. Labor share and employment multipliers within US manufacturing have also declined, accompanied by structural shifts in the consumption share of wages. The findings point to the urgent need for a renewed and coherent US industrial policy aimed at rebuilding domestic production capacities, fostering innovation in high-value sectors, and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth. </p>

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Reverse technological specialization, late resource curse and inequality: the US perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Giuliano Toshiro Yajima,
  • Nikolaos Rodousakis,
  • Vlassis Missos,
  • George Soklis

摘要

This paper examines the structural transformation of the US economy over the past two decades, highlighting how deindustrialization, import dependence, and shifting sectoral dynamics have undermined sustainable growth. Using a Sraffian multiplier framework and OECD input–output data, the analysis identifies a persistent trade deficit and increasing import multipliers in high-technology and machinery industries, signaling a reversal in technological specialization. Meanwhile, the manufacturing share of GDP has contracted, while the energy sector—particularly refined petroleum—has expanded, reflecting a late resource-curse or Dutch-disease effect. These trends coincide with declining labor shares, weakened employment multipliers, and changing consumption patterns, all of which exacerbate functional income inequality. Labor share and employment multipliers within US manufacturing have also declined, accompanied by structural shifts in the consumption share of wages. The findings point to the urgent need for a renewed and coherent US industrial policy aimed at rebuilding domestic production capacities, fostering innovation in high-value sectors, and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.