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<p>This paper analyzes the long-memory properties in U.S. semiconductor industry production and price series. The analysis is framed within the context of the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, which is hypothesized to present a series of persistent economic shocks. The paper aims to determine whether the policy measures and strategic responses characterizing this rivalry have permanently altered the time-series properties of economic variables. It is demonstrated that the global semiconductor market is undergoing a fundamental and irreversible bifurcation, with statistically significant changes in the long memory parameter: the U.S. internal market shifted toward stability and resilience, while the external market fell subject to greater volatility and permanent price shocks.</p>

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Geopolitical rivalry and structural change in semiconductor markets: evidence from long-memory dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Andoni Maiza-Larrarte,
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana,
  • Gloria Claudio-Quiroga

摘要

This paper analyzes the long-memory properties in U.S. semiconductor industry production and price series. The analysis is framed within the context of the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, which is hypothesized to present a series of persistent economic shocks. The paper aims to determine whether the policy measures and strategic responses characterizing this rivalry have permanently altered the time-series properties of economic variables. It is demonstrated that the global semiconductor market is undergoing a fundamental and irreversible bifurcation, with statistically significant changes in the long memory parameter: the U.S. internal market shifted toward stability and resilience, while the external market fell subject to greater volatility and permanent price shocks.