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<p>This study evaluates future rainfall extremes and associated hazards in Tamil Nadu, India, under the Middle-of-the-Road Scenario (SSP2-4.5) using CMIP6 climate projections to assess cumulative risks for different land use types. Eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 were statistically evaluated using multiple performance metrics including correlation coefficient, root mean square error. The best-performing model was selected through comprehensive bias correction and downscaling techniques. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to ten extreme precipitation indices to identify the most significant indicators. Return period analysis was conducted for 5, 10, 20, and 50-year extreme events, with cumulative risk assessment performed for agriculture and habitat land types across districts. Statistical evaluation identified EC-Earth3 as the superior model based on comprehensive performance criteria. PCA revealed consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, and maximum 5-day precipitation as the three most significant extreme indices explaining the majority of variance. Projections indicate a 40% increase in northeast monsoon intensity, with enhanced flash flood risks. Post-monsoon precipitation during January shows increased intensity and variability, particularly in coastal regions. Near-term (2021–2050) drought conditions are projected, while flood risks intensify toward the end-century (2071–2100). Return period analysis demonstrates 40–80% increases in extreme event frequency for coastal zones, with northern coastal and southern districts facing the highest cumulative risks. The study provides quantitative evidence of increasing rainfall extremes in Tamil Nadu under SSP2-4.5, with significant implications for agriculture and human settlements. The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies, particularly for vulnerable coastal districts during mid- and end-century periods. The integrated approach combining model evaluation, extreme indices analysis, and cumulative risk assessment offers a robust framework for regional climate impact studies.</p>

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CMIP6-based assessment of flood and drought hazards in Tamil Nadu: multi-model evaluation and regional risk analysis under SSP2-4.5

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月27日

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  • Ahamed Ibrahim S N,
  • Pavithrapriya S,
  • Ramachandran A,
  • Palanivelu K

摘要

This study evaluates future rainfall extremes and associated hazards in Tamil Nadu, India, under the Middle-of-the-Road Scenario (SSP2-4.5) using CMIP6 climate projections to assess cumulative risks for different land use types. Eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 were statistically evaluated using multiple performance metrics including correlation coefficient, root mean square error. The best-performing model was selected through comprehensive bias correction and downscaling techniques. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to ten extreme precipitation indices to identify the most significant indicators. Return period analysis was conducted for 5, 10, 20, and 50-year extreme events, with cumulative risk assessment performed for agriculture and habitat land types across districts. Statistical evaluation identified EC-Earth3 as the superior model based on comprehensive performance criteria. PCA revealed consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, and maximum 5-day precipitation as the three most significant extreme indices explaining the majority of variance. Projections indicate a 40% increase in northeast monsoon intensity, with enhanced flash flood risks. Post-monsoon precipitation during January shows increased intensity and variability, particularly in coastal regions. Near-term (2021–2050) drought conditions are projected, while flood risks intensify toward the end-century (2071–2100). Return period analysis demonstrates 40–80% increases in extreme event frequency for coastal zones, with northern coastal and southern districts facing the highest cumulative risks. The study provides quantitative evidence of increasing rainfall extremes in Tamil Nadu under SSP2-4.5, with significant implications for agriculture and human settlements. The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies, particularly for vulnerable coastal districts during mid- and end-century periods. The integrated approach combining model evaluation, extreme indices analysis, and cumulative risk assessment offers a robust framework for regional climate impact studies.