Hydrological impacts of climate-driven flood risks: analyzing the AqQala historical bridge collapse over the Gorganrud river
摘要
Floods, intensified by climate change, increasingly pose threats to infrastructure, ecosystems, and human communities. This study examines the hydrological processes and risks associated with the collapse of the AqQala Historical Bridge over the Gorganrud River during climate-driven extreme weather events. Hydrological modeling was conducted to analyze water flow heights for 25-, 50-, and 100-year return period floods under scenarios where the bridge remains intact and where up to 100% of the two bridge spans collapse. The findings demonstrate minimal risk under 25-year flood events, even with partial bridge collapse. However, for 50- and 100-year flood events, the risk of overflow and inundation increases significantly when structural failure exceeds 70%. These results highlight the critical interaction between hydrological processes and infrastructure vulnerability, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures in flood management and resilient infrastructure planning.