Climate change significantly affects crucial aspects of life on Earth, particularly water resources, which in turn impact agriculture and food production. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the green and blue water footprints of 21 (horticultural and agronomic) crops in the Lake Urmia basin during two testing periods: 2011–2030 and 2046–2065. To assess this impact, we applied a predicted daily time series of meteorological variables—temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours—at seven synoptic stations in the study area. This analysis employed the HadCM3 GCM climate model, which was validated for the region, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: a pessimistic/high scenario (RCP8.5) and an optimistic/low scenario (RCP2.6). We also used a historical time series of meteorological data spanning 30 years (1981–2010) as reference data to evaluate the climate model’s performance and to compare the impacts of climate change on the water footprints of the examined crops. The results indicated that the mean monthly temperature is expected to rise in all months of the year under both the high and low scenarios for the two testing periods (about 1 °C in 2011–2030 and about 2 °C in 2046–2065). In contrast, although mean monthly precipitation is projected to increase during the autumn and winter (about 11 mm in 2011–2030 and about 7.5 mm in 2046–2065), it is expected to decrease in spring and summer (about 1 mm in 2011–2030 and about 14 mm in 2046–2065). Overall, mean annual precipitation is expected to decrease by approximately 3.57% in 2011–2030 and 3.48% in 2046–2065. The outcomes showed that the changes in the blue and green water footprints for examined crops in the 2046–2065 period will generally increase (82 m3/ton) and decrease (3.5 m3/ton) under both compared to the reference period (1981–2010). Notably, changes during the 2011–2030 period were nearly negligible for crops other than grains, such as wheat and barley. In addition, the most increases and decreases in the blue and green water footprints of crops were observed in chickpea crop (414.41 m3/ ton) and bean crop (46 m3/ ton), respectively, under the low scenario in 2046–2065 compared to the reference period (1981–2010). This study emphasizes/highlights the importance of prioritizing the cultivation of crops that require lower amounts of blue water and higher amounts of green water, such as cereals and grapes, in the Lake Urmia basin. Such considerations are crucial for large-scale planning efforts in the region.

Climate change impacts on the water footprint of horticultural and agronomic crops in the Lake Urmia basin

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发表日期：

2025年12月26日

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Majid Montaseri,
Negar Rasouli Majd,
Babak Amirataee

摘要

Climate change significantly affects crucial aspects of life on Earth, particularly water resources, which in turn impact agriculture and food production. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the green and blue water footprints of 21 (horticultural and agronomic) crops in the Lake Urmia basin during two testing periods: 2011–2030 and 2046–2065. To assess this impact, we applied a predicted daily time series of meteorological variables—temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours—at seven synoptic stations in the study area. This analysis employed the HadCM3 GCM climate model, which was validated for the region, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: a pessimistic/high scenario (RCP8.5) and an optimistic/low scenario (RCP2.6). We also used a historical time series of meteorological data spanning 30 years (1981–2010) as reference data to evaluate the climate model’s performance and to compare the impacts of climate change on the water footprints of the examined crops. The results indicated that the mean monthly temperature is expected to rise in all months of the year under both the high and low scenarios for the two testing periods (about 1 °C in 2011–2030 and about 2 °C in 2046–2065). In contrast, although mean monthly precipitation is projected to increase during the autumn and winter (about 11 mm in 2011–2030 and about 7.5 mm in 2046–2065), it is expected to decrease in spring and summer (about 1 mm in 2011–2030 and about 14 mm in 2046–2065). Overall, mean annual precipitation is expected to decrease by approximately 3.57% in 2011–2030 and 3.48% in 2046–2065. The outcomes showed that the changes in the blue and green water footprints for examined crops in the 2046–2065 period will generally increase (82 m³/ton) and decrease (3.5 m³/ton) under both compared to the reference period (1981–2010). Notably, changes during the 2011–2030 period were nearly negligible for crops other than grains, such as wheat and barley. In addition, the most increases and decreases in the blue and green water footprints of crops were observed in chickpea crop (414.41 m³/ ton) and bean crop (46 m³/ ton), respectively, under the low scenario in 2046–2065 compared to the reference period (1981–2010). This study emphasizes/highlights the importance of prioritizing the cultivation of crops that require lower amounts of blue water and higher amounts of green water, such as cereals and grapes, in the Lake Urmia basin. Such considerations are crucial for large-scale planning efforts in the region.