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<p>The unprecedented scale of the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States, despite the availability of vaccines, raised critical questions about underlying factors that may have sustained transmission. Mpox, a zoonotic orthopoxvirus traditionally confined to endemic regions, exhibited an unusual spread in the USA, prompting concerns about potential co-factors that amplified its impact. In this study, we analyzed weekly reported cases of mpox and syphilis in the USA over a period of 121 weeks, starting from the onset of the mpox outbreak in May 2022. The aim of the study is to develop and analyze a co-infection model that captures the interaction between mpox and syphilis, with the objective of identifying how syphilis may have influenced the dynamics of the sudden 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States. This is important given the overlapping symptoms and high co-infection rates. While several models have studied either mpox or syphilis in isolation, this work is the first to explicitly integrate both infections using real USA outbreak data and rigorous mathematical analysis, thereby filling a critical gap in the literature. To achieve this, we formulated a novel co-infection model and separately analyzed the mpox and syphilis sub-models, deriving reproduction numbers, local stability conditions, and bifurcation properties. We further established the existence and global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria using Lyapunov functions in the absence of bifurcation parameters. Numerical simulations revealed that heightened susceptibility to mpox due to syphilis infection can moderately sustain outbreaks, particularly when co-infected cases are initially large. These findings suggest that syphilis co-infection may have acted as a catalyst in sustaining the 2022 mpox outbreak, offering a new explanation for its unexpected scale and persistence. Finally, the model indicates that combining rapid mpox recovery, delayed progression from exposure to infection, and optimal vaccination can effectively mitigate the burden of mpox. In summary, this study provides a new co-infection modeling framework, offers mechanistic insight into the role of syphilis in amplifying the 2022 mpox outbreak, and proposes evidence-based strategies of direct relevance for public health policy.</p>

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Stability and bifurcation analysis in a co-dynamical model for mpox and syphilis incorporating intervention measures using real data from USA

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Emeka F. Obiajulu,
  • Nneka O. Iheonu,
  • Nnamdi N. Araka,
  • A. Omame

摘要

The unprecedented scale of the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States, despite the availability of vaccines, raised critical questions about underlying factors that may have sustained transmission. Mpox, a zoonotic orthopoxvirus traditionally confined to endemic regions, exhibited an unusual spread in the USA, prompting concerns about potential co-factors that amplified its impact. In this study, we analyzed weekly reported cases of mpox and syphilis in the USA over a period of 121 weeks, starting from the onset of the mpox outbreak in May 2022. The aim of the study is to develop and analyze a co-infection model that captures the interaction between mpox and syphilis, with the objective of identifying how syphilis may have influenced the dynamics of the sudden 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States. This is important given the overlapping symptoms and high co-infection rates. While several models have studied either mpox or syphilis in isolation, this work is the first to explicitly integrate both infections using real USA outbreak data and rigorous mathematical analysis, thereby filling a critical gap in the literature. To achieve this, we formulated a novel co-infection model and separately analyzed the mpox and syphilis sub-models, deriving reproduction numbers, local stability conditions, and bifurcation properties. We further established the existence and global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria using Lyapunov functions in the absence of bifurcation parameters. Numerical simulations revealed that heightened susceptibility to mpox due to syphilis infection can moderately sustain outbreaks, particularly when co-infected cases are initially large. These findings suggest that syphilis co-infection may have acted as a catalyst in sustaining the 2022 mpox outbreak, offering a new explanation for its unexpected scale and persistence. Finally, the model indicates that combining rapid mpox recovery, delayed progression from exposure to infection, and optimal vaccination can effectively mitigate the burden of mpox. In summary, this study provides a new co-infection modeling framework, offers mechanistic insight into the role of syphilis in amplifying the 2022 mpox outbreak, and proposes evidence-based strategies of direct relevance for public health policy.