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<p>Kaeng Krachan National Park (KKNP), designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Thailand, holds significant importance for its rich biodiversity and indigenous communities. KKNP is prone to climate hazards, including floods and droughts that have impacted the environment and community livelihoods. This study provides a novel framework for assessment of ecological risk from multiple stressors by integrating AHP, Shannon’s Entropy, and Monte Carlo Simulation approaches for KKNP. Inclusive of weight uncertainty associated with multiple criteria in natural heritage sites, and their buffer zones was accounted for from 2018 to 2022. Criteria were categorized into natural and climate hazards (temperature, precipitation, forest fires, and humidity), human hazards (village settlements, agricultural land extent, waste dumping sites, and tourism extent), and vulnerability (biodiversity hotspots and land-use/land-cover). Results found that (i) climate factors and natural hazards were identified as the main contributors to ecological risk based on AHP weights. Human hazards and vulnerability-based criteria were the main contributors to ecological risk according to Shannon’s entropy weights. (ii) Monte Carlo simulation showed entropy-based weights produced lower variance. (iii) Ecological risk was moderate, with values ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 and high-risk zones were concentrated in administrative areas 2 and 4. (iv) Minimal ecological risk posed by tourism reflects effective management. The findings emphasize the need for region-specific interventions within administrative zones, including climate-resilient strategies, disaster risk evacuation systems, continuous border monitoring, and community engagement. Further studies should explore the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events on ecosystem services and community well-being within a socio-ecological ecosystems framework.</p>

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Spatial ecological risk assessment of Kaeng Krachan national park, Thailand (UNESCO world heritage site) through integration of AHP, Shannon’s entropy, and Monte Carlo simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月24日

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  • Praba Jenin Rathnayake Rathnayake Mudiyanselage,
  • Patchapun Rattanapun,
  • Atima Dubsok,
  • Rachakorn Wachirasirodom,
  • Suthirat Kittipongvises

摘要

Kaeng Krachan National Park (KKNP), designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Thailand, holds significant importance for its rich biodiversity and indigenous communities. KKNP is prone to climate hazards, including floods and droughts that have impacted the environment and community livelihoods. This study provides a novel framework for assessment of ecological risk from multiple stressors by integrating AHP, Shannon’s Entropy, and Monte Carlo Simulation approaches for KKNP. Inclusive of weight uncertainty associated with multiple criteria in natural heritage sites, and their buffer zones was accounted for from 2018 to 2022. Criteria were categorized into natural and climate hazards (temperature, precipitation, forest fires, and humidity), human hazards (village settlements, agricultural land extent, waste dumping sites, and tourism extent), and vulnerability (biodiversity hotspots and land-use/land-cover). Results found that (i) climate factors and natural hazards were identified as the main contributors to ecological risk based on AHP weights. Human hazards and vulnerability-based criteria were the main contributors to ecological risk according to Shannon’s entropy weights. (ii) Monte Carlo simulation showed entropy-based weights produced lower variance. (iii) Ecological risk was moderate, with values ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 and high-risk zones were concentrated in administrative areas 2 and 4. (iv) Minimal ecological risk posed by tourism reflects effective management. The findings emphasize the need for region-specific interventions within administrative zones, including climate-resilient strategies, disaster risk evacuation systems, continuous border monitoring, and community engagement. Further studies should explore the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events on ecosystem services and community well-being within a socio-ecological ecosystems framework.