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<p>This study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate both historical (1990–2011) and future (2026–2050) soil-loss rates in the Wadi El-Ham watershed in northern Algeria under three CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). Monthly precipitation (1975–2011) measured from eight meteorological stations and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data from the IPCC AR6 Interactive Atlas were used to derive rainfall erosivity, with the delta method applied to correct bias for improve the quality of the results. Spatial inputs for soil erodibility, topography and land cover were derived from FAO soil maps, a 30&#xa0;m DEM, and Landsat imagery ; respectively. The obtained results show a historical specific soil loss of 5.18 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, predominantly concentrated on steep northern slopes, while more than half of the watershed experienced low erosion rates. The specific soil loss projected for the period 2026–2050 is expected to decrease by 24–29% compared to the historical period, with little change across scenarios (3.72–3.92 t ha/yr) and a slight contraction is expected in the most vulnerable areas, with continued vulnerability in the northern plateaus. The results of this study can guide erosion mitigation measures by identifying the most vulnerable areas. Furthermore, by highlight the key sources of uncertainty and challenges in modeling future erosion, they provide researchers with a basis for testing innovative approaches to address these limitations.</p>

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Soil erosion projection based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, case study of Wadi El-Ham watershed, northern Algeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月18日

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  • kamel Deia,
  • Mahmoud Hasbaia,
  • Zekai Şen,
  • Omar Djoukbala

摘要

This study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate both historical (1990–2011) and future (2026–2050) soil-loss rates in the Wadi El-Ham watershed in northern Algeria under three CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). Monthly precipitation (1975–2011) measured from eight meteorological stations and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data from the IPCC AR6 Interactive Atlas were used to derive rainfall erosivity, with the delta method applied to correct bias for improve the quality of the results. Spatial inputs for soil erodibility, topography and land cover were derived from FAO soil maps, a 30 m DEM, and Landsat imagery ; respectively. The obtained results show a historical specific soil loss of 5.18 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, predominantly concentrated on steep northern slopes, while more than half of the watershed experienced low erosion rates. The specific soil loss projected for the period 2026–2050 is expected to decrease by 24–29% compared to the historical period, with little change across scenarios (3.72–3.92 t ha/yr) and a slight contraction is expected in the most vulnerable areas, with continued vulnerability in the northern plateaus. The results of this study can guide erosion mitigation measures by identifying the most vulnerable areas. Furthermore, by highlight the key sources of uncertainty and challenges in modeling future erosion, they provide researchers with a basis for testing innovative approaches to address these limitations.