<p>This study presents a comprehensive numerical modeling approach to assess the impact of industrial activities on groundwater quality in Tenth of Ramadan City, Egypt “one of the country’s largest industrial zones located in a hyper-arid region. A groundwater-flow model was developed using MODFLOW, calibrated against field observations, and validated with statistical indicators including RMSE and R². The transport of selected heavy metals (e.g., Pb²⁺, Cd²⁺, Cr⁶⁺) was simulated using MT3DMS, incorporating site-specific hydrogeological parameters such as dispersivity, retardation factors, and sorption coefficients. Two contamination scenarios were evaluated: a baseline case assuming continued industrial discharge, and a mitigation scenario reflecting reduced pollutant loads through improved waste-water treatment. Results indicate a progressive increase in contaminant concentrations in both scenarios, with the baseline scenario showing more widespread plume expansion. The most affected zones are near industrial clusters and along preferential flow paths influenced by local hydraulic gradients. The model reveals that while current contamination levels remain localized, long-term industrial activity with the elapsed-time could threaten broader aquifer zones. General-Head and Constant-Head boundaries were applied and justified using field-based hydraulic gradients and stable well measurements. This research supports proactive groundwater management in arid, industrialized regions by providing a robust predictive tool for contamination assessment and mitigation planning. The findings also underscore the need for continued monitoring and enforcement of industrial discharge regulations to preserve groundwater quality.</p>