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<p>Flood events are increasing in both frequency and severity due to climate variability, global warming, and anthropogenic disturbances, posing growing risks to human settlements, transportation networks, and critical infrastructure. We employ an integrated framework that couples climate projections with physically-based semi-distributed hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to project fluvial flood hazard. This study focuses on the City of Jackson in Mississippi, United States which is highly vulnerable to frequent floods due to socio-economic challenges, poor housing, and health disparities. Using multiple climate models and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), we assess localized 100-year flood hazard projections. Results indicate a significant increase in flood hazards under future scenarios. Currently, about 24,700 residents live within flood-prone areas, a number projected to nearly double by the late 21st century. Downtown Jackson is expected to experience disproportionately greater flood impacts. Single-story, single-family residential buildings without basements are among the most exposed structures. A particular concern is a wastewater treatment lagoon located within a high flood hazard area on the right bank, where projected flood depths exceed 3&#xa0;m, posing a serious contamination risk to the downstream potable water treatment facility. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners to prioritize investments in flood resilience, enhance critical infrastructure protection, and develop equitable floodplain management strategies. The proposed approach is scalable and adaptable for other flood-prone urban communities.</p>

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Local-scale flood hazard projections in historically vulnerable communities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月18日

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  • Sunil Bista,
  • Saurav Bhattarai,
  • Sanjib Sharma,
  • Rocky Talchabhadel

摘要

Flood events are increasing in both frequency and severity due to climate variability, global warming, and anthropogenic disturbances, posing growing risks to human settlements, transportation networks, and critical infrastructure. We employ an integrated framework that couples climate projections with physically-based semi-distributed hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to project fluvial flood hazard. This study focuses on the City of Jackson in Mississippi, United States which is highly vulnerable to frequent floods due to socio-economic challenges, poor housing, and health disparities. Using multiple climate models and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), we assess localized 100-year flood hazard projections. Results indicate a significant increase in flood hazards under future scenarios. Currently, about 24,700 residents live within flood-prone areas, a number projected to nearly double by the late 21st century. Downtown Jackson is expected to experience disproportionately greater flood impacts. Single-story, single-family residential buildings without basements are among the most exposed structures. A particular concern is a wastewater treatment lagoon located within a high flood hazard area on the right bank, where projected flood depths exceed 3 m, posing a serious contamination risk to the downstream potable water treatment facility. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners to prioritize investments in flood resilience, enhance critical infrastructure protection, and develop equitable floodplain management strategies. The proposed approach is scalable and adaptable for other flood-prone urban communities.