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<p>Climate change is rapidly reshaping species ranges, yet the vulnerability and resilience of narrowly endemic legumes in Indian tropics remain poorly quantified. We applied an ensemble species-distribution-model (SDM) framework combining eight algorithms to assess the baseline and predict future (2041–2060, 2081–2100) habitat suitability for two Indian endemics, <i>Grona brachystachya</i> and <i>G. wynaadensis</i>. After removing multicollinearity (VIF &gt; 10; |r| ≥ 0.7), eleven bioclimatic and four edaphic predictors at ~ 1&#xa0;km resolution were retained. Models were validated via subsampling and bootstrapping (5 independent replications) and projected under low- (SSP1-2.6) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios from the HadGEM3-GC31-LL GCM. Our results reveal divergent trajectories: <i>G. brachystachya</i> is projected to undergo a ~ 26% decline in highly suitable habitat by 2100 across central and eastern India. This contraction is primarily driven by reductions in annual precipitation (bio_12) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCS). In contrast, <i>G. wynaadensis</i> shows a modest 5% expansion into higher elevations of the Western Ghats, facilitated by increased wet-season precipitation (bio_18) and cooler montane microclimates. Odisha and southern Chhattisgarh emerged as potential climate suitable area for <i>G. brachystachya</i>, while expanding upland zones in Karnataka offer future core habitats for <i>G. wynaadensis</i>. We recommend assisted migration and micro-reserve creation tailored to ecological preferences of each species. This study underscores the importance of combining climate and soil data to enhance the ecological realism of SDMs and provides spatially explicit guidance for conservation planning under future climate scenarios.</p>

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Climate-driven distributional shifts of endemic Indian legumes: insights from species distribution models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Chandan Kumar Sahu,
  • Pujarini Samal,
  • Lal Babu Chaudhary,
  • Soumit Kumar Behera,
  • Dibyendu Adhikari

摘要

Climate change is rapidly reshaping species ranges, yet the vulnerability and resilience of narrowly endemic legumes in Indian tropics remain poorly quantified. We applied an ensemble species-distribution-model (SDM) framework combining eight algorithms to assess the baseline and predict future (2041–2060, 2081–2100) habitat suitability for two Indian endemics, Grona brachystachya and G. wynaadensis. After removing multicollinearity (VIF > 10; |r| ≥ 0.7), eleven bioclimatic and four edaphic predictors at ~ 1 km resolution were retained. Models were validated via subsampling and bootstrapping (5 independent replications) and projected under low- (SSP1-2.6) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios from the HadGEM3-GC31-LL GCM. Our results reveal divergent trajectories: G. brachystachya is projected to undergo a ~ 26% decline in highly suitable habitat by 2100 across central and eastern India. This contraction is primarily driven by reductions in annual precipitation (bio_12) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCS). In contrast, G. wynaadensis shows a modest 5% expansion into higher elevations of the Western Ghats, facilitated by increased wet-season precipitation (bio_18) and cooler montane microclimates. Odisha and southern Chhattisgarh emerged as potential climate suitable area for G. brachystachya, while expanding upland zones in Karnataka offer future core habitats for G. wynaadensis. We recommend assisted migration and micro-reserve creation tailored to ecological preferences of each species. This study underscores the importance of combining climate and soil data to enhance the ecological realism of SDMs and provides spatially explicit guidance for conservation planning under future climate scenarios.