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<p>Quantifying the projected shifts in unusual weather and climate events is crucial for many reasons. Planners, policymakers, and other professionals involved in water resource management and development of adaptation strategies for the effects of climate shift also need to have a firm grasp of climate variables. To this end, the present study quantified future extreme climate events over Philippines region which is threatened by effects of climate change under varying climate scenario based on latest climate models as used in recent assessment report (AR6). The study employed robust climate indices used in estimating the occurrence of extreme events globally. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that represent medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation (SSP2-4.5), the results reveal projected to increase in precipitation events during the two timescales (mid-period (MP; 2041–2060) or far-period (FP; 2081–2100) respectively across the entire region. Similarly, under the Fossil-fuelled Development or “business-as-usual” pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the spatial variance of mean precipitation shows an increase except in eastern Visayas Island and Mindanao where there is a decrease in the range of 1–3%. During FP, much of the Philippines appears to show precipitation increase except the western Visayas and southern Mindanao islands. Considering the changes in extreme indices, the result most precipitation indices show an increase during the projected periods under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 warming scenario, with large changes noted to occur under SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, most temperature indices (TNn, TXx, Tx90p and Tx10p) appears to stabilize in projected upsurge or decline (Tx10p), except for DTR that show high variability until the end of the century. The coefficient of variation appears smaller for Consecutive Dry Days (CDD; ~0.70) and larger for Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII; ~0.96). This shows that the region will experience high variability in occurrence of precipitation intensity events but prolonged changes in dry events. This calls for urgent action from the policy makers to devise strategies that can minimize losses of lives and properties from the areas where more significant alterations in climate events are anticipated.</p>

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Intensified changes in extreme climate events over the Philippines region under future climate scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月8日

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  • Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon,
  • Jing-jia Luo,
  • Onyango Augustine Omondi,
  • Brian Odhiambo Ayugi

摘要

Quantifying the projected shifts in unusual weather and climate events is crucial for many reasons. Planners, policymakers, and other professionals involved in water resource management and development of adaptation strategies for the effects of climate shift also need to have a firm grasp of climate variables. To this end, the present study quantified future extreme climate events over Philippines region which is threatened by effects of climate change under varying climate scenario based on latest climate models as used in recent assessment report (AR6). The study employed robust climate indices used in estimating the occurrence of extreme events globally. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that represent medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation (SSP2-4.5), the results reveal projected to increase in precipitation events during the two timescales (mid-period (MP; 2041–2060) or far-period (FP; 2081–2100) respectively across the entire region. Similarly, under the Fossil-fuelled Development or “business-as-usual” pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the spatial variance of mean precipitation shows an increase except in eastern Visayas Island and Mindanao where there is a decrease in the range of 1–3%. During FP, much of the Philippines appears to show precipitation increase except the western Visayas and southern Mindanao islands. Considering the changes in extreme indices, the result most precipitation indices show an increase during the projected periods under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 warming scenario, with large changes noted to occur under SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, most temperature indices (TNn, TXx, Tx90p and Tx10p) appears to stabilize in projected upsurge or decline (Tx10p), except for DTR that show high variability until the end of the century. The coefficient of variation appears smaller for Consecutive Dry Days (CDD; ~0.70) and larger for Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII; ~0.96). This shows that the region will experience high variability in occurrence of precipitation intensity events but prolonged changes in dry events. This calls for urgent action from the policy makers to devise strategies that can minimize losses of lives and properties from the areas where more significant alterations in climate events are anticipated.