<p>In order to examine the dynamics of disease transmission across human, animal, and environmental compartments, this study creates a unique fractal-fractional leptospirosis model utilizing the Mittag-Leffler kernel. Important memory effects and hereditary characteristics of illness transmission are included in the model. Lyapunov functions is used to examine global stability and fixed-point theory to prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Finding equilibrium points, calculating the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and doing a thorough parameter sensitivity analysis are examples of analytical outcomes. The importance of memory effects in transmission dynamics is shown by numerical simulations that show that reduced fractional order <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="13" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\xi\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>ξ</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and transmission rates <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="15" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> considerably impede illness progression. Flip bifurcation analysis is performed and it has been verified that model behaviour is bounded and flip bifurcation does not exist. According to our findings, <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> may be successfully decreased by strategically reducing contact rates <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="32" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\psi ,\rho\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>ψ</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ρ</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and environmental contamination <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq6.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\Bbbk ^\theta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">k</mi> <mi>θ</mi> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, as well as by improving recovery rates <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq7.gif" Format="GIF" Height="20" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="41" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(b^\theta ,\omega ^\theta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msup> <mi>b</mi> <mi>θ</mi> </msup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <mi>ω</mi> <mi>θ</mi> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and sanitation measures <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2508_Article_IEq8.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\pi ^\theta\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mi>π</mi> <mi>θ</mi> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The visual confirmation of endemic equilibrium stability and compartmental interactions is provided by the 3D phase space analysis. This fractal-fractional architecture gives a strong mathematical basis for creating focused leptospirosis control techniques, as well as improved forecasting power.</p>

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A study on mathematical modeling and control of leptospirosis transmission dynamics during a hurricane with asymptomatic measures

  • Aqeel Ahmad,
  • Usama Atta,
  • Ali Akgül,
  • Sadia Sattar,
  • M. O. Ahmad

摘要

In order to examine the dynamics of disease transmission across human, animal, and environmental compartments, this study creates a unique fractal-fractional leptospirosis model utilizing the Mittag-Leffler kernel. Important memory effects and hereditary characteristics of illness transmission are included in the model. Lyapunov functions is used to examine global stability and fixed-point theory to prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Finding equilibrium points, calculating the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) R 0 , and doing a thorough parameter sensitivity analysis are examples of analytical outcomes. The importance of memory effects in transmission dynamics is shown by numerical simulations that show that reduced fractional order \(\xi\) ξ and transmission rates \(\beta\) β considerably impede illness progression. Flip bifurcation analysis is performed and it has been verified that model behaviour is bounded and flip bifurcation does not exist. According to our findings, \(R_0\) R 0 may be successfully decreased by strategically reducing contact rates \(\psi ,\rho\) ψ , ρ and environmental contamination \(\Bbbk ^\theta\) k θ , as well as by improving recovery rates \(b^\theta ,\omega ^\theta\) b θ , ω θ and sanitation measures \(\pi ^\theta\) π θ . The visual confirmation of endemic equilibrium stability and compartmental interactions is provided by the 3D phase space analysis. This fractal-fractional architecture gives a strong mathematical basis for creating focused leptospirosis control techniques, as well as improved forecasting power.