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<p>Banana Bunchy Top Disease is a significant constraint on banana production, with profound economic and food security implications in tropical regions. In this study, we developed and analyzed a mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of the banana bunchy top virus. We applied the next-generation matrix method to determine the basic reproductive number, which was&#xa0;subsequently used to assess the stability of the&#xa0;model system equilibrium points. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the&#xa0;model parameters to the basic reproduction number to identify the key parameters influencing disease transmission. Furthermore, an optimal control model was formulated and solved by applying Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We employed the Runge–Kutta fourth-order method to numerically simulate the optimal control problem&#xa0;by utilizing both forward and backward sweeps. The numerical results indicated that the best strategy for eliminating banana bunchy top disease is&#xa0;to implement a combination of all three controls: banana bunchy top virus-resistant banana plants, roguing, and vector control. This study provides significant practical insights to guide scientists, policymakers, and agricultural extension services in controlling and eliminating banana bunchy top disease.</p>

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Mathematical modeling and optimal control of banana bunchy top disease dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月12日

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  • John J. Mapinda,
  • Alfred K. Hugo,
  • Jairos K. Shinzeh,
  • Stephen Edward

摘要

Banana Bunchy Top Disease is a significant constraint on banana production, with profound economic and food security implications in tropical regions. In this study, we developed and analyzed a mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of the banana bunchy top virus. We applied the next-generation matrix method to determine the basic reproductive number, which was subsequently used to assess the stability of the model system equilibrium points. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the model parameters to the basic reproduction number to identify the key parameters influencing disease transmission. Furthermore, an optimal control model was formulated and solved by applying Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We employed the Runge–Kutta fourth-order method to numerically simulate the optimal control problem by utilizing both forward and backward sweeps. The numerical results indicated that the best strategy for eliminating banana bunchy top disease is to implement a combination of all three controls: banana bunchy top virus-resistant banana plants, roguing, and vector control. This study provides significant practical insights to guide scientists, policymakers, and agricultural extension services in controlling and eliminating banana bunchy top disease.