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<p>This study evaluates the evolution of drought conditions in the Angulo River Basin, northern Michoacán, under projected climate change scenarios (2006–2100) using four CORDEX climate models (CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI). Bias correction was applied using quantile mapping and assessed through PDF, CDF, Q–Q plots, and Taylor diagrams, demonstrating notable improvements in distributional alignment, especially for HADGEM and CNRM. Drought assessment was conducted using SPI, SPEI, and SDI indices, revealing intensifying drought conditions post-2060, particularly in the lower basin. While HADGEM projected a moderate precipitation decline with realistic drought trajectories, CNRM showed the most pronounced reduction. SDI results validated runoff simulations from the basin hydrological model, confirming its robustness for long-term drought forecasting. The study highlights the value of multi-index approaches, model validation, and bias correction in capturing spatial drought variability and supports the use of HADGEM and CNRM for regional climate impact assessments. </p>

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Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought response in CORDEX models- case of Rio Angulo basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月24日

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  • Giovanni Carlo Flores Fernández,
  • Jaime Madrigal,
  • Sonia Tatiana Sánchez Quispe,
  • Israel García Ledesma,
  • Abel Solera Solera

摘要

This study evaluates the evolution of drought conditions in the Angulo River Basin, northern Michoacán, under projected climate change scenarios (2006–2100) using four CORDEX climate models (CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI). Bias correction was applied using quantile mapping and assessed through PDF, CDF, Q–Q plots, and Taylor diagrams, demonstrating notable improvements in distributional alignment, especially for HADGEM and CNRM. Drought assessment was conducted using SPI, SPEI, and SDI indices, revealing intensifying drought conditions post-2060, particularly in the lower basin. While HADGEM projected a moderate precipitation decline with realistic drought trajectories, CNRM showed the most pronounced reduction. SDI results validated runoff simulations from the basin hydrological model, confirming its robustness for long-term drought forecasting. The study highlights the value of multi-index approaches, model validation, and bias correction in capturing spatial drought variability and supports the use of HADGEM and CNRM for regional climate impact assessments.