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<p>The study aims to analyze the land use transformation in and around Salt Lake and Rajarhat New Town over the last &#xa0;30&#xa0;years (1993 to 2023) and to predict future land cover changes with multiple explanatory factors. A total of 15 urban growth driving factors, classified into five categories, are determined and the variables with p-values &lt; 0.01 are chosen to predict the future land cover map of 2033. The LULC of 2033 is modeled from the LULCs of 2013 and 2023 within a rigorously validated modeling environment. Results show that the built-up area was observed to have expanded by about &#xa0;18.26% each year from 1993 to 2023, with a projected growth of &#xa0;44.35% by 2033 from 2023. Such continued expansion&#xa0;of&#xa0;grey spaces, combined with the steady loss of blue and green spaces, indicates the intensifying pressure of&#xa0;urban encroachment- particularly into the adjacent sub-urban and&#xa0;rural areas of Rajarhat New Town. In contrast, Salt Lake and the unplanned urbanized areas of Rajarhat Gopalpur Municipality witnessed &#xa0;relatively lesser urban growth&#xa0;over the study period, attributable to their already advanced stage of urban development. Vegetation cover declined by 46.60% from 1993 to 2023, while water bodies showed relative stability with minor reductions, emphasizing the need for sustainable land management. The encroachment of cropland and grass cover into urban fabric further underscores the impacts of both planned and unplanned growth.&#xa0;Such transformative and predictive LULC mapping offers critical foresight into future urban landscapes, enabling planners, policymakers and researchers to strategically align development priorities, formulate adaptive strategies and promote sustainable urban and regional transformations.</p>

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Changing landscape and future prediction in and around planned urban centres: a case study on Salt Lake and Rajarhat New Town

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月28日

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  • Mehebub Mondal,
  • Suman Mitra,
  • Monalisa Patra,
  • Koel Roychowdhury

摘要

The study aims to analyze the land use transformation in and around Salt Lake and Rajarhat New Town over the last  30 years (1993 to 2023) and to predict future land cover changes with multiple explanatory factors. A total of 15 urban growth driving factors, classified into five categories, are determined and the variables with p-values < 0.01 are chosen to predict the future land cover map of 2033. The LULC of 2033 is modeled from the LULCs of 2013 and 2023 within a rigorously validated modeling environment. Results show that the built-up area was observed to have expanded by about  18.26% each year from 1993 to 2023, with a projected growth of  44.35% by 2033 from 2023. Such continued expansion of grey spaces, combined with the steady loss of blue and green spaces, indicates the intensifying pressure of urban encroachment- particularly into the adjacent sub-urban and rural areas of Rajarhat New Town. In contrast, Salt Lake and the unplanned urbanized areas of Rajarhat Gopalpur Municipality witnessed  relatively lesser urban growth over the study period, attributable to their already advanced stage of urban development. Vegetation cover declined by 46.60% from 1993 to 2023, while water bodies showed relative stability with minor reductions, emphasizing the need for sustainable land management. The encroachment of cropland and grass cover into urban fabric further underscores the impacts of both planned and unplanned growth. Such transformative and predictive LULC mapping offers critical foresight into future urban landscapes, enabling planners, policymakers and researchers to strategically align development priorities, formulate adaptive strategies and promote sustainable urban and regional transformations.