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<p>India, now the world’s most populous country, faces escalating challenges in water management due to many reasons, among which climate change plays a critical role. The changing factors are accelerating food insecurity and driving up crop water requirements (CWR) and irrigation requirements (IR) as agriculture adapts to these shifting dynamics. Quantification of climate variability and its impact on agricultural water gives glimpses of water sustainability. This study examines the CWR and IR of key crops in the Indravati River Basin (IRB) under historical, present, and future climate scenarios. IRB is dominated by tribal populations and is the least explored region related to the analysis of future climate &amp; its impact on agricultural water demand. The primary objective of this study is to predict the future CWR and IR for eight major crops grown in IRB using historical and projected climate data. Climate models that show strong correlations with Indian Weather Department (IMD) data were selected for further processing in climate and crop models. The study uses CMIP6 GCM models under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios to simulate climate changes in the IRB to guide sustainable irrigation practices. CROPWAT 8.0 was employed to compute CWR and IR for rabi and kharif seasons. Climate models EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR forecast significant increases in temperature and rainfall, particularly under the SSP585 scenario. However, higher variability is observed in rainfall. Rainfall is projected to peak at 1841.5&#xa0;mm by 2040. Rising temperatures are expected to increase evapotranspiration, thereby escalating CWR and IR from 2000 to 2050. This study highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies to ensure food security and sustainable water management in response to these evolving climate challenges.</p>

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Assessing climate models to forecast future climate and agricultural water demand in the Indravati River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月6日

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  • Anurag Yadav,
  • Raj Mohan Singh

摘要

India, now the world’s most populous country, faces escalating challenges in water management due to many reasons, among which climate change plays a critical role. The changing factors are accelerating food insecurity and driving up crop water requirements (CWR) and irrigation requirements (IR) as agriculture adapts to these shifting dynamics. Quantification of climate variability and its impact on agricultural water gives glimpses of water sustainability. This study examines the CWR and IR of key crops in the Indravati River Basin (IRB) under historical, present, and future climate scenarios. IRB is dominated by tribal populations and is the least explored region related to the analysis of future climate & its impact on agricultural water demand. The primary objective of this study is to predict the future CWR and IR for eight major crops grown in IRB using historical and projected climate data. Climate models that show strong correlations with Indian Weather Department (IMD) data were selected for further processing in climate and crop models. The study uses CMIP6 GCM models under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios to simulate climate changes in the IRB to guide sustainable irrigation practices. CROPWAT 8.0 was employed to compute CWR and IR for rabi and kharif seasons. Climate models EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR forecast significant increases in temperature and rainfall, particularly under the SSP585 scenario. However, higher variability is observed in rainfall. Rainfall is projected to peak at 1841.5 mm by 2040. Rising temperatures are expected to increase evapotranspiration, thereby escalating CWR and IR from 2000 to 2050. This study highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies to ensure food security and sustainable water management in response to these evolving climate challenges.