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<p>Invasive aquatic macrophytes pose a significant threat to tropical floodplains as they alter vegetation dynamics and reduce native species’ richness. This study predicts the current and future distribution of five invasive species - <i>Alternanthera philoxeroides</i>, <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i>, <i>Ipomoea aquatica</i>, <i>Ipomoea carnea</i>, and <i>Trapa natans</i> - in the floodplains of Assam, India, under climate change scenarios. We used ensemble species distribution modeling with two global circulation models (IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Our models indicate that under baseline conditions, the floodplains of Assam are highly susceptible to invasion by these species. Future projections suggest an expansion of suitable habitats for <i>A. philoxeroides</i> and <i>T. natans</i>, while suitable areas for <i>E. crassipes</i> and <i>I. carnea</i> are projected to decline significantly. Notably, <i>I. aquatica</i> is expected to maintain a consistent distribution across all scenarios. These findings enhance our ecological understanding of invasion dynamics under climate change and provide valuable insights for policymakers and conservationists to develop targeted strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of invasive species and protecting Assam’s aquatic ecosystems.</p>

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Assessing vulnerability of tropical floodplains of Assam to macrophyte invasion under climate scenarios using ensemble modelling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月28日

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  • Samim Borbhuyan,
  • Pujarini Samal,
  • Nami Prasad,
  • Titam Dey,
  • Dibyendu Adhikari,
  • Tapati Das

摘要

Invasive aquatic macrophytes pose a significant threat to tropical floodplains as they alter vegetation dynamics and reduce native species’ richness. This study predicts the current and future distribution of five invasive species - Alternanthera philoxeroides, Eichhornia crassipes, Ipomoea aquatica, Ipomoea carnea, and Trapa natans - in the floodplains of Assam, India, under climate change scenarios. We used ensemble species distribution modeling with two global circulation models (IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Our models indicate that under baseline conditions, the floodplains of Assam are highly susceptible to invasion by these species. Future projections suggest an expansion of suitable habitats for A. philoxeroides and T. natans, while suitable areas for E. crassipes and I. carnea are projected to decline significantly. Notably, I. aquatica is expected to maintain a consistent distribution across all scenarios. These findings enhance our ecological understanding of invasion dynamics under climate change and provide valuable insights for policymakers and conservationists to develop targeted strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of invasive species and protecting Assam’s aquatic ecosystems.