<p>In this work, a mathematical model describing an infectious disease (pine wilt disease) caused by bark beetles has been studied. It has been analyzed qualitatively on the basis of “basic reproduction number” <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2305_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({R_0}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. We proved that, only disease-free state exists as long as the basic reproduction number is below or equal to unity and all solutions approach this point. When <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2305_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({R_0}&gt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, all trajectories ultimately approach the endemic equilibrium. The model has been applied on the actual number of infectious pine trees occurred in Korea during ten years period and estimated the values of parameters. Significant parameters have been observed with the help of the sensitivity analysis and artificial neural networks has been used to observe the numerical treatment of tainted hosts (pines) and vectors (pine sawyers) through fitness curves with respect to the most considerable factors. These curves demonstrate the upshot of the effects of parameters clearly on the infectious hosts and vectors. Optimal control problem has been designed and studied. The efficacy of applied control strategies has been shown through the numerical simulations by using RK-4 method.</p>

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Mathematical study of infectious disease of pines caused by bark beetles

  • Takasar Hussain,
  • Muhammad Ozair,
  • Adnan Aslam,
  • Maham Afaq,
  • Muhammad Tanveer,
  • Muhammad Awais,
  • J. F. Gómez-Aguilar

摘要

In this work, a mathematical model describing an infectious disease (pine wilt disease) caused by bark beetles has been studied. It has been analyzed qualitatively on the basis of “basic reproduction number” \({R_0}\) R 0 . We proved that, only disease-free state exists as long as the basic reproduction number is below or equal to unity and all solutions approach this point. When \({R_0}>1\) R 0 > 1 , all trajectories ultimately approach the endemic equilibrium. The model has been applied on the actual number of infectious pine trees occurred in Korea during ten years period and estimated the values of parameters. Significant parameters have been observed with the help of the sensitivity analysis and artificial neural networks has been used to observe the numerical treatment of tainted hosts (pines) and vectors (pine sawyers) through fitness curves with respect to the most considerable factors. These curves demonstrate the upshot of the effects of parameters clearly on the infectious hosts and vectors. Optimal control problem has been designed and studied. The efficacy of applied control strategies has been shown through the numerical simulations by using RK-4 method.