<p>Climate change is a global concern and global efforts are being made to reduce the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This study investigated carbon dioxide removal impact on heat/cold waves and heat stress conditions in West Africa using UKESM1 and CNRM-ESM1-C1 Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) simulation outputs. Understanding this impact is important due to the region’s vulnerability to climate change and its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health. Three indices – Effective Temperature Index (ETI), Humidex Index (HD) and Temperature Humidity Index (THI) were used to evaluate heat stress in each of the periods – 1990–2019 (reference), 2040–2069, 2070–2099 and 2100–2129 since they have humidity term and hence, can give a comprehensive description of the climate scenario over West Africa. Excess heat factor (EHF) index was used to evaluate heat/cold wave. The three indices projected heat stress over West Africa within thermal comfort limit. 80.3% of the total number of days analyzed in Sahel regions were within the range of normal days. On the average, 7665 normal days were projected over West Africa at 95<sup>th</sup> and 5<sup>th</sup> percentile daily mean temperatures (reference period) of 39.2°C and 25.3°C, respectively, in the period 2070-2099. There were 3135 cold days with no “severe” intensity. The analyses revealed predominance of cold wave and reduction in daily mean temperature before the end of 21<sup>st</sup> century, indicating the potentials of CDR in ameliorating the prevailing heatwave over West Africa.</p>

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Projected heat/cold waves and heat stress conditions in West Africa under carbon dioxide removal scenarios

  • E. K. Uzoma,
  • M. O. Adeniyi

摘要

Climate change is a global concern and global efforts are being made to reduce the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This study investigated carbon dioxide removal impact on heat/cold waves and heat stress conditions in West Africa using UKESM1 and CNRM-ESM1-C1 Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) simulation outputs. Understanding this impact is important due to the region’s vulnerability to climate change and its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health. Three indices – Effective Temperature Index (ETI), Humidex Index (HD) and Temperature Humidity Index (THI) were used to evaluate heat stress in each of the periods – 1990–2019 (reference), 2040–2069, 2070–2099 and 2100–2129 since they have humidity term and hence, can give a comprehensive description of the climate scenario over West Africa. Excess heat factor (EHF) index was used to evaluate heat/cold wave. The three indices projected heat stress over West Africa within thermal comfort limit. 80.3% of the total number of days analyzed in Sahel regions were within the range of normal days. On the average, 7665 normal days were projected over West Africa at 95th and 5th percentile daily mean temperatures (reference period) of 39.2°C and 25.3°C, respectively, in the period 2070-2099. There were 3135 cold days with no “severe” intensity. The analyses revealed predominance of cold wave and reduction in daily mean temperature before the end of 21st century, indicating the potentials of CDR in ameliorating the prevailing heatwave over West Africa.