Spatio-temporal analysis of cholera spread: a mathematical approach using fluid dynamics

The 2024 cholera outbreak in Lagos, Nigeria, triggered by severe rains and subsequent flooding, highlighted the urgent necessity for advanced modeling of epidemic dynamics in urban settings. This study introduces a novel approach to understanding and forecasting the spatial transmission of a newly identified cholera strain by applying principles of fluid dynamics. The cholera pathogen and the infected population are treated as fluid elements within a mathematical model, enabling the simulation of the epidemic’s spread through both direct and indirect transmission routes. The model employs a fifth-order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) scheme for spatial accuracy, alongside a third-order Runge–Kutta method for temporal integration, effectively capturing the complex patterns of cholera transmission across various regions of Lagos. Through numerical simulations, the study examines the effectiveness of various disinfection strategies, offering critical insights into the spatial-temporal progression of the epidemic. The findings underscore the significant role of fluid dynamics in epidemic modeling, providing valuable guidance for improving public health interventions and reducing the impact of future outbreaks. This research not only advances the theoretical framework for cholera modeling but also offers practical solutions for controlling the spread of infectious diseases in densely populated urban areas.